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China 2020: A Confucian Democracy?

China 2020: A Confucian Democracy?. RAVI BHOOTHALINGAM 4 May 2011 Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. Will China…………… A. Become a democracy? B. Collapse? C. Evolve in unexpected ways?.

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China 2020: A Confucian Democracy?

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  1. China 2020: A Confucian Democracy? RAVI BHOOTHALINGAM 4 May 2011 Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses

  2. Will China……………A. Become a democracy?B. Collapse? C. Evolve in unexpected ways?

  3. Which time-bomb(s) will explode?A. Political: ‘the chaos of democracy’?B. Economic: ‘the hard landing’?C. Social: regional disparities and disorder?D. Environmental: ‘poisoned water’?…

  4. ….or will China Carve a unique pathway of her own into the future?China’s modernisation: xiandaiUnderstanding China in her own terms

  5. “Ways Of Thinking” ie Competences

  6. “Ways Of Thinking”

  7. From Confucius’ ‘Great Learning’ ‘When things are investigated, knowledge is extended, When knowledge is extended, thoughts are made sincere,When thoughts are made sincere, the heart and mind are rectified,When the heart and mind are rectified, the personal life is cultivated,When the personal life is cultivated, then the family is regulated,When the family is regulated, the state will be in order,When the state is in order, there will be peace throughout the world.’

  8. The Confucian heritage-1From small to big, specific to generalMan not alone but part of relationshipsImportance of family, hierarchy, society“The five relationships” & harmonyHuman nature: a/c to the West, Confucius

  9. The Confucian heritage-2Self- cultivation and educationLegalists and coercionIndividual and the collectiveGovernance as a learnt art

  10. Human Nature & Governance(a la Confucius)1.Human nature is capable of good and evil2.Winner => ‘self-cultivation’, education3.Society, duties, > > individualism, rights4.Harmony as the basic regulating principle5.Government is part of man’s relationships6.Governing: virtue, training, experience7.Virtue = effort now, gratification later8.Harmonious governance is best for all

  11. The More Things Change…… Despite Mao, Confucian ethic alive and flourishing in ChinaHow this heritage supports China’s growthCommunist rhetoric conceals the cooption of the Confucian and imperial stateMaintain harmony though difference exists

  12. The More Things Change……“Teach them! Enrich them!”….Confucius“To get rich is glorious!”…Deng Xiao Ping(“ Garibi Hatao!”…………..Indira Gandhi)--------------------------------------------------------“I hear, then I forget I see, then I remember I do, and then I understand” …Confucius “Learning by doing is true education”-Mao

  13. China’s essence & the Communists Filial piety and the one-child policyFace, shame and humiliationThe Great ExemplarsLaw, mediation and fairness

  14. Governance—the CPC’s DilemmaThe ‘3-Represents’ breaks downCronyism and CorruptionThe Social Contract under StressThe limits of economism:

  15. Yan Xuetong’s Lament“Today, China’s attractiveness comes from its economic power, but that situation cannot last.Money worship is not attractive enough.You need moral power.”So, the Party School investigates…..“

  16. The Study of DemocraciesAnglo-American democraciesEuropean & Scandinavian Soc-Dem GovtsIndia & Indonesia—diverse emerging nationsThe East Asian Tigers

  17. “Scientific Development”Mao Zedong ThoughtsDeng Xiaoping TheoryJiang Zemin: “Three Represents”Hu Jintao: Scientific Development

  18. Scientific Development-1Elitist expert decision making Consultation, deliberation, (implied consent)Intra-party democracy, merit and incentivesInterventionist & corporatist governanceLong-termUtility with humanist boundaries

  19. Scientific Development-2Rigid frameworks and responses by Party The Internet—friend or foe?Citizens--Remonstration or Revolt?Progress by “punctuated equilibrium”?

  20. A Confucian Democracy?A Sinic version of LincolnOf the People, For the People BUT NOT: By the People?RATHER: With the People

  21. A Confucian vision of the FutureNo ‘Western Enlightenment’ moral framework‘Harmonious World’ with China at the centreGovernance as a Sui Generis process

  22. THANK YOU!

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