Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

1. Resilient State for M9.0 CSZ Earthquake – Oregon’s 50-year VisionKent Yu, PhD, SEOregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory CommissionJuly 18,2012 OSU, Corvallis Oregon

2. Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes Turbidites show how much of the subduction zone ruptured in ~42 earthquakes over the last 10,000 years. • 20 earthquakes ruptured all of the subduction zone. • 2 to 3 earthquakes ruptured three quarters of subduction zone. • 19 earthquakes ruptured the southern half or quarter of the subduction zone. Recurrence Mw ~9500 yrs Mw 8.5-8.8430 yrs Mw 8.5-8.3320 yrs Mw 7.6-8.4240 yrs (Modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press) by adding magnitude estimates and some labels)

3. Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk

4. Seismic Concerns • Progressive government and community • Unclear building performance • Different standards for performance among different lifeline sectors • Lack of inter-sector coordination • Limited understanding by political leadership and the public of the potential performance of buildings and lifelines

5. House Resolution 3 • Sponsored by Rep. Deb Boone and others • Directs (OSSPAC) to “lead and coordinate preparation of an Oregon Resilience Plan that . . . makes recommendations on policy direction to protect lives and keep commerce flowing during and after a Cascadia (megathrust) earthquake and tsunami.” • The Plan and recommendations to be delivered to the Oregon Legislative Assembly by February 28, 2013.

6. Broad Political Support • Richard A. Reed, President Obama’s Senior Director for Resilience Policy • Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber • State Agencies • CREW, SEAO, ASCE, AIA • Oregon businesses and local government • Academia (UO, OSU, PSU, UP, Reed, etc) • Neighbors, Friends and Colleagues

7. Resilience Planning Objective • Look at 50-year time window • Develop a comprehensive plan so that state will have been resilient by 2062 • Utilize concepts and ideas by SF Planning +Urban Research Association and from Resilient Washington Initatives

8. Oregon Resilience Planning Steps • Assess conditions of existing critical facilities and lifeline systems, • Evaluate effectiveness of current design and construction practices relative to earthquake resilience, • Develop desired performance targets (in terms of usability and timeframe required for the restoration of services) to meet resilience goals, and • prepare recommendations for statewide policies and actions to achieve the desired performance targets. • Recommendations will be prepared in plain, layman language.

9. Organizational Structure • OSSPAC • OSSPAC Steering Committee • Advisory Panel • Eight Workgroups • Started to plan in November 2011 • Kickoff on January 26, 2012 at Port of Portland • Special February Meeting (Advisory panel + Group leaders) • 150 +/- volunteers

10. Advisory Panel • Scott Ashford (OSU) • Chris Goldfinger (OSU) • Andre LeDuc (U of O) • Jeff Soulages (Intel) • Ted Wolf (Oregon citizen) • Leon Kempner (Regional/BPA) • Vicki McConnell (DOGAMI) • Jean O'connor (Healthcare) • Cameron Smith (Governor’s office) • Sen. Peter Courtney (Legislature) • Sen. Lee Beyer (Legislature) • JR Gonzalez (formerly Oregon PUC) • Bruce Johnson (ODOT) • Ed Dennis (Dept. of Education) • Yumei Wang (NEHRP) • Onno Husing (formerly OCZMA) • Nate Wood (USGS)

11. Eight Workgroups • Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario • Critical/Essential Buildings • Energy • Information and Communications Technology • Transportation • Coastal Resilience • Water and Waste Water Systems • Business/Community Continuity

12. Earthquake/Tsunami Group • Led by Ian Madin (DOGAMI) • Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario Group will develop: 1) Ground shaking intensity maps 2) Tsunami Inundation maps 3) Landslide and liquefaction maps

13. Coastal Community Resilience Group • Led by Jay Wilson/Jay Raskin • Tsunami Risk Mitigation Group will address the following: Tsunami evacuation Zoning and Land use policy Critical facilities Re-building community Debris management

14. Critical Building Group • Led by by Ed Quesenberry and Trent Nagele (SEAO) • The Critical Building Task Group will address the buildings listed below: Emergency Operations Centers Education facilities (K-12, College and University); Healthcare facilities (Hospitals and MOBs) Police and Fire Stations Critical government administration/services facilities Emergency sheltering facilities Community retail centers Financial/banking Buildings Residential Housing Killer buildings (URM and non-ductile RC buildings)

15. Energy Group • Led by Stan Watters (OSSPAC/Port of Portland) and JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC) • The Energy Task Group will address the systems listed below: Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuel Alternate Energy – Solar, Wind and others Dams

16. Transportation Group • Led by Bruce Johnson (ODOT) • The Transportation Task Group will address the systems listed below: Bridges (owned by ODOT, Counties or Cities) Airports and Seaports Railroads Mass Transit (Trimet) Columbia River

17. Information and Communications Group • Led by Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC/Beaverton) • The Information and Communications Task Group will address the systems listed below: Communication Network and Database Telecommunication Infrastructure

18. Water and Waste Water Group • Led by Mike Stuhr (PWB) and Mark Knudson (TVWD) • The Water and Wastewater Task Group will address the systems listed below: Water storage, transmission, and distribution systems (including Dams) Wastewater collection systems and treatment plants

19. Business/Community Continuity Group • Led by Susan Stewart (BOMA) and Gerry Williams (OSSPAC) • Goals: • Raise Earthquake/Tsunami Awareness • Gauge Earthquake/Tsunami Preparedness • Gather input/ideas from Business for other workgroups to define resilience targets and improve resilience plan

20. Business/Community Continuity Group • Business Needs:

21. Three Regions and Interdependence • Three Banded Zones: 1) Central/Eastern Oregon 2) Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor 3) Coastal Region 3a) Tsunami Inundation Zone

22. Regional Focus/Priority • Coastal Region (inundation area): Save lives • Coastal Region (non-inundation area): Save lives, Provide shelters, Restore utilities and communities • Valley/I-5 Corridor: Save lives, Restore communities, and Preserving functioning economy • Eastern Oregon: Relatively easy to achieve resilient State • Eastern Oregon can function as a staging point

23. Business/Community Continuity Group • Group Leaders: Susan Steward and Gerry Williams • Members: OBA, Cambia, Intel, ECONorthwest, the Standard, New Season Market • Business community demand two weeks for utilities • Work force: tipping in vs. tipping out • Essential Facilities shorter time frame • Red, Yellow, and Green tagged buildings • Big Business vs Small Business

24. Lifeline Sector Interdependence • Team Leaders/Steering Committee meet monthly (since April) • Identify common denominators • Liquid Fuel, Transportation • Electricity, W&WW, Telecom • Challenges and Obstacles • Lack of participation/engagement • Lack of inspectors for buildings and bridges

25. Project Milestones • Project Kickoff workshop on 1/26/2012 (312th Anniversary) • Each group collect data and complete analysis by 8/30/2012 • Each group complete first draft report by 9/11/2012 • 2nd workshop will be held in PSU on 9/18/2012 (to be finalized) • Regular OSSPAC meeting in September to be on 9/25/2012 • Steering Committee consolidate review comments (including those of Advisory Panel) in the first week of October, 2012 • Each group update the report by the end of October, 2012 • OSSPAC review/develop policy recommendations in 11/2012 • Report reaches 95% completion milestone; share draft with legislature by December 15th 2012 • Work on the final revisions in January 2013 • Publish the resilience report in February 2013

26. Thank You