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Hurricane Radar DA

Hurricane Radar DA. EnKF assimilation for Ike (2008 ) (Dong and Xue) Hybrid-3DVAR DA for Ike (2008 ) (Li, Wang and Xue) Assimilation of GBVTD wind retrieval for Typhoon Shaomei (2006) (Zhao et al.) 3DVAR assimilation of airborne radar data for Ike (Du et al)

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Hurricane Radar DA

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  1. Hurricane Radar DA • EnKFassimilation for Ike (2008) (Dong and Xue) • Hybrid-3DVAR DA for Ike (2008) (Li, Wang and Xue) • Assimilation of GBVTD wind retrieval for Typhoon Shaomei (2006) (Zhao et al.) • 3DVAR assimilation of airborne radar data for Ike (Du et al) • 3DVAR+Cloud Analysis of ground-based radars for Ike (2008), Meranti (2010), Jangmi (2008), Marokot (2009)

  2. EnKF DA of MSLP and Coastal Radar Data for Ike (2008)(ARPS Model and EnKF System) • ARPS model • 515x515x53 • Dx = 4km • dzmin=50m • dz=625m • Lin microphysical scheme • 32 member ensemble • ARPS EnKF code (EnSRF) • Inflation • 5% prior multiplicative • Posterior additive on wind and pt • Radar DA every 30 min for 6 hours Before landfall 6:07 UTC 09/13/2008

  3. EnKF DA of MSLP and Coastal Radar Data for Ike (2008)(ARPS Model and EnKF System) MSLP in DA Cycles (Dong and Xue 2011 QJ; Xue and Dong 2012)

  4. Increments from MSLP assimilation UV+P at 1km q at 1km MSLP enhances vortex and low-pressure system W + bg wind MSLP enhances warm-core MSLP enhances updrafts

  5. MSLP Forecasts Vr+MSLP best

  6. Impact on track forecast (Vr+MSLP) (Z+MSLP) Improvement on final track analysis Improvement on track forecast Improvement on final track analysis 10 min. interval of MSLP better track forecast

  7. Coastal Radar DA using WRF 3DVAR/Hybrid for Ike (2008) (Li, Wang and Xue 2011)

  8. Wind increments WRF 3DVAR w/ default spatial correlation scale WRF 3DVAR w/ reduced spatial correlation scale Hybrid w/ full ensemble cov. Hybrid with half ensemble cov.

  9. ETS scores for 3-hour precipitation Track and Intensity Forecasts

  10. Assimilation of airborne radar Vr data using ARPS 3DVAR for Hurricane Ike (2008) (work of Ph.D. student Ningzhu Du)

  11. Surface wind speed along four flight legs on Sept 12 from SFMR (Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer), CTRL, and Vr DA with 4 cycles

  12. Flight-level wind speed along four flight legs on Sept 12 from SFMR (Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer), CTRL, and Vr DA with 4 cycles

  13. Assimilation of GBVTD-Retrieved Winds from Single-Doppler Radar for Short-TermForecasting of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) at Landfall Observed Z Ground-Based Velocity-Track Display technique (GBVTD) (Lee et al. 1999) is used to fill the Vr data gaps and obtain complete TC circulation in the inner core region Observed Vr GBVTD Retrieval of Vr (Zhao, Xue and Lee 2011QJ)

  14. Final Analysis Track and Intensity Fcsts Sfc wind speed and p Vertical x-section of speed No radar GBVTD Vr ETS scores GBVTD Vr No radar GBVTD

  15. High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009) • Max storm total rainfall ~2800 mm

  16. ARPS 6-h forecast 12 h fcst 24 h fcst reflectivity Observed reflectivity

  17. Total Accumulated Precipitation 6 h fcst 12 h fcst 24 h fcst 1630mm 898mm 698mm Radar Precipitation Estimate 1530mm 474mm 837mm

  18. 48 h 4 km WRF forecast from global EnKF analysis Julia Karl Igor 48 h 4 km WRF forecast from GFS analysis (from Jeff Whitaker) CAPS realtime 4 km WRF hurricane forecasts from fall 2010 Verifying GFS analysis

  19. Average absolute track error

  20. Average absolute MSLP error EnKF error is cut in half Assimilation of TCVitals data

  21. Track forecasts for Typhoon Megi (2010) Best track GSI GSI EnKF EnKF GSI EnKF

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