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Corn Situation and Outlook

Corn Situation and Outlook. 2009 Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Columbus, Ohio August 18, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA. U.S. Corn Statistics.

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Corn Situation and Outlook

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  1. Corn Situation and Outlook 2009 Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Columbus, Ohio August 18, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA

  4. U.S. Corn Statistics Source: USDA, Crop Progress

  5. U.S. Corn Conditions, Good to Excellent Source: USDA, Crop Progress

  6. 3 Month Temperature Outlook Aug. – Oct. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

  7. 3 Month Temperature Outlook Sept. – Nov. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

  8. 3 Month Temperature Outlook Oct. – Dec. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  10. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish; USDA-NASS

  11. USDA Meat Production Projections Source: USDA, WASDE report

  12. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2009 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  13. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2008 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. 2009 U.S. Corn Export Advance Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Crude Oil Futures Prices Source: NYMEX

  18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  20. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

  21. Outside Influences (Jan. 2009 = 1)

  22. U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratios

  23. World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

  24. Corn 1990 - 2006

  25. Corn

  26. Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2008

  27. Iowa Crop Basis

  28. Corn Futures 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04 Source: CBOT, 8/14/09

  29. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  30. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 31, 2009

  31. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets • Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year • Most important ag. statistics: Crop yield estimates, livestock numbers • USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.50 for corn • Current futures Friday: ’09 Corn $3.09 ’10 Corn $3.54

  32. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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