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MARFC River Ice Briefing

MARFC River Ice Briefing . Wednesday, February 12, 2014 NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. Susquehanna River just south of Wrightsville, PA February 12, 2014 Photo courtesy Paul Kuehnel , YDR.com. Our Current Status.

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MARFC River Ice Briefing

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  1. MARFC River Ice Briefing Wednesday, February 12, 2014 NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Susquehanna River just south of Wrightsville, PA February 12, 2014 Photo courtesy Paul Kuehnel, YDR.com

  2. Our Current Status • Overall, ice coverage has remained unchanged in PA, NJ & NY. The ice is more than has been experienced in recent years. • Temperatures are expected to moderate a little this weekend and into early next week, but without any significant rain expected, we do not anticipate any large scale river ice break-up or jamming in the short term. Isolated jams and flooding are always possible. A more significant warm-up is possible late next week. Stay tuned! • Ice conditions can change rapidly so please stay alert and continue to monitor your river and weather forecast at http://weather.gov. Please share your river ice observations with your local NWS office.

  3. So why are we monitoring the river ice so carefully? • With these briefings, and sharing of photos and observations you may be wondering what all the fuss is. It’s winter and river ice is common, right? • What is also common is flooding from ice jams. • We monitor the river ice to help us predict when and where there is a threat of flooding. We share this information to keep everyone alert for the possibility of flooding.

  4. Flood Threat from Ice Jams • You don’t have to have river ice at your location to experience flooding from ice jams. Ice jams can occur downstream of you, and cause water to back up, like a lake behind a dam, and flood your location. • River ice from far upstream can move down the river and be tossed onto your land, damaging your property.

  5. Let’s Learn From Past Experience • January 1996 was a very serious event where the combination of rain, snowmelt and river ice killed people. We are not saying that this year will be the same, but you should be aware that river ice movement can be damaging.

  6. Courtesy of the Philadelphia Inquirer • The article http://articles.philly.com/1996-01-28/news/25651151_1_flood-prone-states-river-basins-federal-disaster-assistance was written by Susan Q. Stranahan, of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The article was posted on January 28, 1996. Our thanks goes to Philadelphia Inquirer Editor, Bill Marimow, for giving us permission to quote it in this briefing, for the purposes of public safety. • We recommend you read this article to become aware of the dangers of ice jam floods.

  7. Important Excerpts from the January, 1996 Philadelphia Inquirer article • “Most of these tributaries were choked with ice, which restricted their flows. Ice jams were common; frozen chunks, often the size of cars, resembled battering rams as they smashed anything in their path.” • “Eyewitnesses reported that a four-foot wall of water roared down the narrow creek after an ice jam upstream broke loose on Friday evening.” • “Frank Kangenski, 77, and his wife, Gladys, 75 …drowned when their car stalled in a cornfield as they attempted to outrace the rising water. Neighbors could hear Kangenski calling for help but were unable to rescue the couple.” • “Mary Ann Blair, 38, … drowned after being swept off the roof of her mobile home along the creek. John Keck, 68, … died when his car was swept off a bridge …” • “There is devastation all over up there,'' said …Police Chief Salvatore A. Casale. We have approximately 3 1/2 miles of creek where all the homes are destroyed.’” • “River-watchers are comparing it to the flood of 1904, when March rains melted ice that was 10 feet thick in places and sent train-sized icebergs and other debris hurtling downstream. Entire islands were eradicated in the flow.”

  8. What we’ve learned • River ice can cause sharp changes in river levels. These changes can be on the order of several feet and they happen fast! • River ice can be thrown onto the river banks as the rivers rise. Blocks of ice have been observed stuck in trees. River ice can be heavy and damaging as it moves across river banks.

  9. A Sample of some recent River Ice Photographs • We continue to find many helpful photographs from Facebook and Twitter from across our area. The following are a good sample from across our service area from the past couple of days. • FYI – most every afternoon we share the latest batch of river ice photos on our Facebook page. To see these, please follow us at https://www.facebook.com/#!/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov

  10. Delaware River at Trenton, NJ Photo by Bob Ingle @bobingle99 Feb 7, 2014

  11. Delaware River at Easton, PA Photo by Laini Abraham @LainiAbraham Feb 12, 2014

  12. Lehigh River in Carbon County, PA Photo by Photography by Lynn @photolynn Feb 8, 2014

  13. Schuylkill River at Philadelphia, PA Photo by @rajismyname, Feb 12, 2014

  14. Raritan River from Rt 18 BridgeNew Brunswick, NJ Photo by TJ Cain @bradleybomber Feb 12, 2014

  15. Passaic River at Lincoln Hwy Photo by Meagan @mustachii Feb 8, 2014

  16. Owego Creek at Owego, NY Photo by Ron Murphy @isixtyfive Feb 9, 2014

  17. Susquehanna River near Apalachin, NY Photo by Ron Murphy, @isixtyfive Feb 11, 2014

  18. Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA Photo by Brian Enterline @HbgCaptain Feb 12, 2014

  19. Recent River Ice Photos & News • Thank youto everyone who is sharing news and photos of the river ice with us. • We are sharing these photos, plus any news we gather, through our Facebook https://www.facebook.com/#!/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.govand Twitter@NWSMARFC accounts, everyday. Following MARFC on Facebook & Twitter is the best way to stay up to date on the river ice because, as you know, conditions can change rapidly. • If you notice anything urgent, such as a jam forming and flooding, please notify your local emergency management and your local National Weather Service office soon as possible.

  20. How to stay updated • Monitor your river forecast at: http://water.weather.gov • Follow MARFC on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Follow MARFC on Twitter @NWSMARFC • Follow your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices too. They are also sharing photos and news about river ice.

  21. Additional Resources • NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Website: http://weather.gov/marfc • NWS Temperature Forecasts: http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ • NWS Precipitation Forecasts: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml • NWS MARFC Water Temperature Observations (raw data - not quality controlled): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/water_temps/ • NWS Susquehanna and Delaware River Basins River Ice Website http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ctp/hydro/riverice/index.php

  22. As long as conditions remain stable, the next MARFC River Ice Briefing will be Wednesday, February 19th. If you have any questions or concerns, please email patricia.wnek@noaa.gov

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