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5 February, 2013

Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate Assessment CLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom Wilson LA’s: Kristen Averyt , Robert Harriss , Robin Newmark , Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova and Vincent Tidwell. 5 February, 2013.

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5 February, 2013

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  1. Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate AssessmentCLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom WilsonLA’s: Kristen Averyt, Robert Harriss, Robin Newmark, Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakovaand Vincent Tidwell 5 February, 2013

  2. A Word (or two) on Carbon • Carbon is a currency for energy – from production (e.g., emissions) to consumption (e.g., buildings, land use) • Carbon and water are intimately linked • Understanding and quantifying carbon cycle dynamics and budgets is needed for appropriate analyses from driving forces to impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment. • For interactions of biogeochemical cycles and climate from the NCA see chapter 15 at: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

  3. Key Messages • Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways. Climate change affects the individual sectors and their interactions; the combination of these factors affects climate vulnerability as well as adaptation and mitigation options for different regions of the country. • The dependence of energy systems on land availability and water supplies will influence their development and constrain some options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Jointly considering risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities associated with energy, water, and land use is difficult, but can improve the analysis of options for reducing climate change impacts.

  4. LAND FOR ENERGY ►Infrastructure ▪dams/reservoirs ▪mines/wells ▪power plants ▪solar & wind farms ▪power lines ▪pipelines ▪railways ▪refineries ▪biomass feedstock & biofuels production ►CCS ►Energy Mineral Deposits Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways Desalination New Water LAND FOR WATER ►Water-Capture & Watershed ►Ground Cover Vegetation ►Hydro-Geology ►Ecosystems Fresh Brackish/ Saline Wind, Solar & Geothermal Power Gen Ground Waters Water Snow Pack Energy HydroPower Generation Ponds Lakes Rivers Streams Power Grid WATER FOR LAND ►Forests & Ecosystems ►Crop & Animal Agriculture ►Mining/Energy Extraction ►Industrial, Municipal, Commercial & Residential Climate Variability And Change Surface Waters Biofuels & BioPower Quality Impacts Nutrient Loading WATER FOR ENERGY ►Extraction ►Cooling ►Processing ►Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Fossil & Nuclear Thermal Power Generation ENERGY FOR LAND►Development ►Transportation ►Economic Productivity ►Resource Extraction & Conversion Urban, Commercial & Industrial Municipal Solid Waste Agriculture Cropland Pasture CAFO Desert & Scrub Forest & Grasslands Other ENERGY FOR WATER►Pumping ►Transport ►Treatment ►Conditioning Land From Skaggs and Hibbard, 2012

  5. Climate, Drought and Energy:Impacts on Individual Sectors and Interactions In Texas, local gas shale production shut down in 2011 and crop failures continued through 2012

  6. Water Use for Electricity Generation Macknick et al. 2010

  7. Water for Energy: Already Stressed? Averyt et al. 2011

  8. Regional Characteristics:Drought, Heat, Energy and Land In the Northeast, thermo-electric power plants experienced de-ratings in summer of 2012 due to elevated water temperatures exceeding EPA regulations. Rising river temperatures and power plant de-ratings in 2012.

  9. Regional Characteristics: Land, Energy and Water Competition between energy and food? Utility scale requirements for renewables? Food before fuel is a state issue The climate wrench Corn in Belleville, IL Bloomberg (2012) Renewables and land constraints USDA, BIOtechNOW (2012) SoCal connected (2012) Brightsource & desert tortoise

  10. Regional Characteristics: The PNW - Land, Energy and Water

  11. Regional Characteristics: National View - Land, Energy and Water Climate Impacts: Northwest ▪ Reduced summer stream flows ▪ Reduced forest production ▪ Reduced Salmon production ▪ Coastal erosion Climate Impacts: Northeast ▪ Inc. heat waves/reduced air quality ▪Inc. variability in water resources ▪ Inc. growing season ▪ Inc. threat to native species Climate Impacts: Midwest ▪ Inc. heat waves/ reduced air quality ▪ Storm and sea level induced flooding ▪ Reduced agricultural prod. ▪ Reduced fisheries and tourism Climate Impacts: Southwest ▪ Inc. flooding risk to infrastructure ▪ Inc. water stress ▪ Inc. vegetation change ▪ Reduced forming, tourism and urban growth Climate Impacts: Southeast ▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure ▪ Reduced water availability ▪ Ecosystem impacts ▪ Reduced quality of life Climate Impacts: Great Plains ▪ Rural to urban migration ▪ Reduced water resources ▪ Reduced farming and ranching Climate Impacts: Alaska▪ Thawing permafrost damage oninfrastructure▪ Decreased soil moisture ▪ Vegetation Change ► Inc. growing season Climate Impacts: Hawaii▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure ▪ Reduced freshwater availability ▪ Coastal and fisheries ecosystem damage

  12. SUMMARY • There are no silver bullets or simple answers • The intersects of land, energy and water have unique regional characteristics: both with regard to constraints and endowments • Informed decisions regarding tradeoffs and consequences for mitigation and adaption must include integrated frameworks and campaigns (e.g., NGEE, CARVE, ABOVE) that account for: • Decision making criteria • Physical, biological, social, economic and energy system processes • New observations that account for human processes • COMPROMISE DRAFT

  13. THANK YOU!NCA chapters are available for public comment until April 12, 2013 from:http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/ 5 February, 2013

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