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Major Drought Lingers

U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Weather Outlook Mike Tannura Owner, Meteorologist and Agricultural Economist T-storm Weather, LLC Advance Trading Chicago, Illinois April 12, 2013. Major Drought Lingers. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center. U.S. Winter Wheat Production 2006 - 2010.

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Major Drought Lingers

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  1. U.S. Corn, Soybean, andWheat Weather OutlookMike TannuraOwner, Meteorologist and Agricultural EconomistT-storm Weather, LLCAdvance TradingChicago, IllinoisApril 12, 2013

  2. Major Drought Lingers • Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center

  3. U.S. Winter Wheat Production • 2006 - 2010

  4. Precipitation (Percent of Normal) • Weighted By U.S. Crop Production • 180-Day Period Ending Yesterday • 39% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to 2% of SRW wheat and 10% of corn

  5. Winter Wheat Rated Poor and Very Poor • As of Monday, April 8 • Includes more than 50% of wheat in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas

  6. U.S. Corn Production • 2006 - 2010

  7. Precipitation • Percent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Yesterday • Much of the central / northern Plains and Corn Belt were wet over the long term • Source: National Weather Service

  8. U.S. Corn Yield • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  9. U.S. Corn Yield • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service • Yields represent the departure from the linear trend over 1960-2012

  10. U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-April Precipitation* • 1960 - 2012 • * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • Data sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service, National Climatic Data Center • Yields represent the departure from the linear trend over 1960-2012

  11. Snowpack • Yesterday at 1 AM Central Time • Snowpack is widespread from the Canada Prairies into the north-central U.S.

  12. Snowpack • One Year Ago Yesterday at 1 AM Central Time • Snowpack is widespread from the Canada Prairies into the north-central U.S.

  13. Coldness and Jet Stream • Cannot Move With Snowpack

  14. Ongoing / Upcoming Pattern Likely To Limit Corn Planting

  15. Neutral Conditions Exist And Are Expected To Continue – El Niño or La Niña Conditions Do Not Exist

  16. Neutral Conditions Exist And Are Expected To Continue – El Niño or La Niña Conditions Do Not Exist • Data source: Climate Prediction Center

  17. Neutral Conditions • Neutral conditions persisted 10 times over January-October since 1960 • 1960, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 1993, and 2004 • Data source: Climate Prediction Center, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  18. U.S. Corn Yield and • Neutral Conditions • Neutral conditions persisted 10 times over January-October since 1960 • 1960, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 1993, and 2004 • Data source: Climate Prediction Center, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  19. March Temperature Across • Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • 2004 - 2013

  20. 10 Coldest Marches Across • Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • 1895 - 2013

  21. July Temperature Across • Illinois-Indiana-Iowa After • The Coldest Marches • 1895 - 2013

  22. July Precipitation Across • Illinois-Indiana-Iowa After • The Coldest Marches • 1895 - 2013

  23. Thank You! • Questions? Mike Tannura Owner, Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist Email: mike@tstorm.net Website: www.tstorm.net Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370

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