Levels & Distribution of Migrants in & out of Scotland

1. Levels & Distribution of Migrants in & out of Scotland An overview of internal & international migration

2. Overall Migration Trends

3. Policy Environment • The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy, published in November 2007, identified population growth as a key contributor to and indicator of economic growth, and set a target “to match average European (EU-15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland over this period”. • Work is being taken forward to deliver this target, including consideration of how policy on attracting migrants (Fresh Talent) might contribute towards achievement of target.

4. Official Government Estimates • There is no data collection in the UK that directly measures the number of migrants to or from Britain and its constituent countries. • Official estimates of migration to Scotland are produced by the General Register Office of Scotland (GROS). These estimates used to inform official population estimates in Scotland. • Estimates are of long-term migrants – i.e. people who arrive or leave for more than 12 months. • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce similar statistics for England, Wales and the UK overall, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) produce them for Northern Ireland.

5. Internal Migration Estimates • Internal (from elsewhere in the UK) migration estimates are based on the NHS Central Register (NHSCR). • NHSCR contains counts of people who move from one health board (HB) to another. • From this it is possible to estimate cross-border flows – for example, the number of people who move from a Welsh HB to a Scottish HB in a year. • Records are kept by GROS (Scotland), ONS (England & Wales) and NISRA (Northern Ireland). Data is collected quarterly.

6. Internal Migration Estimates • Moves are recorded at both ends – for example, ONS record the number of people who leave England to go to Scotland and GROS record the number of people who arrive in Scotland from England. • There are often discrepancies, so the convention is that everyone uses the count recorded by the receiving country. • NHSCR is problematic because short-term migrants cannot be distinguished from long-term migrants. • Migrants can be allocated directly to Health Board level using NHSCR data.

7. Scotland & UK Migration – Last Decade

8. Scotland & UK Migration – Last Decade

9. Rest of UK Migration to & from Health Boards

10. International Migration Estimates • Overall numbers of international migrants in and out of Scotland are collecting in the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is a continuous survey conducted by ONS at the principal air, sea and Channel Tunnel routes between the UK and countries outside the British Isles. • However, sample of IPS interviewees who indicate they are travelling to or from Scotland is very small – and not large enough to obtain much detail from. • The NHSCR contains data on migrants from abroad who register with the NHS at Health Board level. This data is used to apportion the IPS estimate amongst Scottish Health Boards.

11. International Migration Estimates • The overall figure of international migration in and out of Scotland is adjusted to allow for asylum seekers (data supplied by the Home Office), visitor switchers and migrant switchers. • Further adjustments are made for visitor switchers (people who intend to stay or leave for less than a year but end up staying / leaving for longer and migrants switchers (the opposite of visitor switchers). • In 2007, ONS conducted a quality review of migration statistics and developed a method of using the Labour Force Survey to apportion international in-migrants across the UK. As a result, GROS have decided to adopt the ONS method from 2007 onwards.

12. International Migration

13. International Migration

14. International Migration Estimates • Unfortunately migrants tend not to inform their GP when they move abroad, so the NHSCR only contains limited data on international out-migrants from Scotland. • To distribute international out-migrants amongst Health Boards, GROS use an average of the distribution of out-migrants to elsewhere in the UK and the limited data available on international out-migrants. • GROS are investigating ways of improving the internal distribution of international out-migrants, however there is little concrete data available.

15. International Migration to Health Boards

16. Distribution Below Health Board Level • There are 14 Health Boards in Scotland. Scotland can be further divided amongst the 32 Local Authorities. The NHSCR only allows migrants to be distributed down to Health Board level. Further distribution to the Local Authorities within each Health Board is carried out using the Community Health Index (CHI). • The CHI is an administrative dataset that contains the postcodes of patients registered in each Health Board. The postcodes are used to estimate what proportion of migrants to each Health Board move into each Local Authority. Each CHI extract is a ‘snapshot’ in time. • CHI estimates are controlled up to the NHSCR (inc. age & sex).

17. Migration into Scotland

19. Migration - City of Edinburgh (by age)

20. Migration – East Lothian (by age)

21. Migration – Orkney (by age)

22. Migration – North Lanarkshire (by age)

23. Further Sources of Data • There are a variety of data sources that GROS also look at when analysing migration patterns. • The Worker Registration Scheme • National Insurance Number Registrations • Mother’s Place of Birth • Electoral Register Data, Labour Force Survey, 2001 Census Results, various miscellaneous collections. • There is no data collection in the UK that directly measures the number of international migrants to or from Britain and its constituent countries. All data sources provide a piece of the picture – but not the whole.

24. WRS & NINO

25. Mother’s Country of Birth

26. Summary • Levels of migration very important to Scotland, as birth rates and death rates are roughly equal. • Internal Migration is based on health records, international migration is based on the IPS. • Distribution of migrants within Scotland is also based on health records. • Very little reliable data is available for international out-migrants. • In the past, GROS & ONS have used different estimates of international migration. • Whilst a range of data is available on migrants, there is no source that can provide a direct estimate of migrants entering and leaving Scotland.