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ENSO Outlook in spring/summer 2013

ENSO Outlook in spring/summer 2013. Rongqing Han. Beijing Climate Center/CMA April 9, 2013. Outline. Influences of Climatological background Trend Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind Impacts of the North Pacific SST Models’ prediction Discussion and Conclusion.

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ENSO Outlook in spring/summer 2013

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  1. ENSO Outlook in spring/summer 2013 Rongqing Han Beijing Climate Center/CMA April 9, 2013

  2. Outline • Influences of Climatological background Trend • Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind • Impacts of the North Pacific SST • Models’ prediction • Discussion and Conclusion

  3. 1. Influences of Climatological background Trend

  4. Global SST Anomaly (0C) and Anomaly Tendency

  5. Stronger Walker cell in recent years Mar Feb 2012 2013

  6. And Stronger meridional cells Mar Feb 2012 2013

  7. Correlation between Monthly Nino3.4 index & January Siberian High(1981-2011) 95%confidence 90% confidence Correlations 95% 99%confidence Y（-1） Y（0） Y（+1） Month for Nino3.4index

  8. Negative Siberian high index in January 2013 will be favor of the warmer Nino SST in later months

  9. NINO3.4 Heat Budget (from CPC) • SSTA tendency (dT/dt) in NINO3.4 region (dotted black line) was positive, but decreased in Mar 2013. • All the advection terms, as well as thermodynamical term (Qq) were positive, consistent with weakening of negative SSTA Huang, B., Y. Xue, X. Zhang, A. Kumar, and M. J. McPhaden, 2010 : The NCEP GODAS ocean analysis of the tropical Pacific mixed layer heat budget on seasonal to interannual time scales, J. Climate., 23, 4901-4925. Qu: Zonal advection; Qv: Meridional advection; Qw: Vertical entrainment; Qzz: Vertical diffusion Qq: (Qnet - Qpen + Qcorr)/ρcph; Qnet = SW + LW + LH +SH; Qpen: SW penetration; Qcorr: Flux correction due to relaxation to OI SST

  10. Depth anomalyof 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific Time

  11. 2. Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind (5S-5N) Composite of Transition to La Nina events Composite of Transition to El Nino events The current 时 间

  12. 2. Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind (5S-5N) Composite of persisting on ENSO-neutral and warmer conditions Composite of persisting on ENSO-neutral and colder conditions The current

  13. 3 Impacts of the North Pacific SST ------------by wind-evaporation-SST mechanism

  14. 4. Models' prediction

  15. Average of international model outlooks for NINO3.4 ----------- 7 dynamical models ensembled by Australia

  16. Models’ prediction of IRI/CPC

  17. CPC Models' prediction

  18. 5. Discussion and Conclusion Advantages for El Nino Disadvantages for El Nino • Siberian high and tropical wind are favor of El Nino developing in the second half of 2013 • Lasting recharge effect in the tropical Pacific since2010,with two La Nina events and a neutral year, is prepared enough for next El Nino • Lasting negative phase of PDO • Stronger positive Walker and Hadley cells • Influence of negative SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific

  19. 5. Discussion and Conclusion • ENSO is most likely to turn gradually into warm and neutral conditions by following summer; • Negative SST anomalies are expect to only remain in the central tropical Pacific by summer 2013.

  20. Thanks!

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