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Assessing Rainfall Predictions and Erosion Risks for Construction in San Gabriel Mountains

A construction worker in the San Gabriel Mountains is faced with significant erosion issues due to unpaved access roads and insufficient soil stabilization from vegetation. Despite a news report claiming a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will result in minimal rainfall, statistical analysis shows that PDO does not significantly predict Southern California precipitation. In contrast, Nino3 demonstrates a strong correlation with rainfall, suggesting the report underestimates El Niño's impact. The worker's practical strategies include building barriers to mitigate erosion and maximizing work during summer droughts.

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Assessing Rainfall Predictions and Erosion Risks for Construction in San Gabriel Mountains

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Presentation Transcript

  1. CCM exam Question 1

  2. overview • A construction worker has building plans in the San Gabriel Mountains. Erosion is a big issue since access roads will not be paved and vegetation won’t be able to stabilize soils. • A news report stated that west coast precipitation anomalies are directly significantly related to Pacific indices. • He is interested in the relation between PDO indices and Southern California rainfall because the news report stated that PDO was expected to be negative over the next 5 years, and therefore rainfall was expected to be minimal. • Hired a consulting meteorologist to determine if the news report was correct and to discuss their personal views on the issues with respect to his construction plans.

  3. Part 1: news report • For PDO: for 56 years, the correlation coefficient of 0.104 gave a significance level of 0.4916. This is NOT statistically significant. • Does not necessarily mean that when PDO is negative, there will not be rainfall in Southern California. • Not a good predictor of precipitation.

  4. Part 1 continued • For Nino3: for 56 years, the correlation coefficient of 0.55 gave a significance level of 0.01. This is statistically significant. • Nino3 is a much better predictor of precipitation in Southern California. • The news report, which downplays El Nino’s impact on precipitation is incorrect.

  5. Part 2: my views • Disregard the news report. It is confusing to the reader. • There are wide variations in rainfall in Southern California. • Expect some erosion. Perhaps build a barrier around the site and access roads. • SOI is a good indicator of predicted rainfall. It has a correlation coefficient of -0.55 which gave a significance level of 0.01. • Work as much as possible during the summer drought.

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