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Consumption, Real GDP and Multiplier

Consumption, Real GDP and Multiplier. Chapter 12. Consumption. Real Disposable Income Real GDP minus net taxes, or after-tax real income Consumption Spending on new goods and services out of a household ’ s current income Whatever is not consumed is saved

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Consumption, Real GDP and Multiplier

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  1. Consumption, Real GDP and Multiplier Chapter 12

  2. Consumption Real Disposable Income • Real GDP minus net taxes, or after-tax real income Consumption • Spending on new goods and services out of a household’s current income • Whatever is not consumed is saved • Consumption includes such things as buying food and going to a concert

  3. Saving • The act of not consuming all of one’s current income • Whatever is not consumed out of spendable income is, by definition, saved • Saving is an action measured over time (a flow) • Savings are a stock, an accumulation resulting from the act of saving in the past

  4. Consumption Goods • Goods bought by households to use up, such as food and movies • Consumption plus saving equals disposable income • Saving equals disposable income minus consumption

  5. Investment • Spending by businesses on things such as machines and buildings, which can be used to produce goods and services in the future • The investment part of real GDP is the portion that will be used in the process of producing goods in the future • Producer durables; nonconsumable goods that firms use to make other goods

  6. Classical Model • In the classical model, the supply of saving was determined by the rate of interest • The higher the rate, the more people wanted to save, and the less they wanted to consume

  7. Keynesian View • Keynes argued that: • The interest rate is not the most important determinant of individual’s real saving and consumption decisions • Real saving and consumption decisions depend primarily on a household’s real disposable income

  8. Keynesian Consumption function • Keynes was concerned with changes in AD (AD= C +I+G+NX) • The relationship between amount consumed and disposable income • A consumption function tells us how much people plan to consume at various levels of disposable income

  9. Autonomous Consumption • The part of consumption that is independent of the level of disposable income • Changes in autonomous consumption shift the consumption function • 45-Degree Reference Line - The line along which planned real expenditures equal real GDP per year

  10. Dissaving • Negative saving; a situation in which spending exceeds income • Dissaving can occur when a household is able to borrow or use up existing assets

  11. Average Propensity to Consume • Average Propensity to Consume (APC) Real consumption divided by real disposable income • The proportion of total disposable income that is consumed

  12. Average Propensity to Save • Average Propensity to Save (APS) • Real saving divided by real disposable income(DI) • Saved proportion of real DI

  13. Example of APC • Income increases by $6,000 to $60,000 • C = $54,000 • S = $6,000

  14. Marginal Propensity to Consume • Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) The ratio of the change in real consumption to the change in real disposable income

  15. Marginal Propensity to Save • Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)The ratio of the change in saving to the change in disposable income

  16. The Multiplier • Multiplier -The ratio of the change in the equilibrium level of real national income to the change in autonomous expenditures • The number by which a change in autonomous real investment or autonomous real consumption is multiplied to get the change in equilibrium real GDP

  17. Multiplier Formula It is possible that a relatively small change in consumption or investment can trigger a much larger change in real GDP

  18. Multiplier example • MPC = .9 and MPS =.1 • 1/1-.9=1/.1= 10 • If 50 billion dollars is invested then it will become 500 billion dollars in real GDP growth due to the Multiplier

  19. Your turn to use multiplier • MPC =.8 MPS=.2 • 50 billion is invested • 1/1-.8 = 1/.2 = 5 • 5x50= 250 billion • Now make a multiplier problem for a friend.

  20. Investment • Investment is new expenditures on buildings and equipments. • It also includes changes in inventories, or items produced but not sold by businesses

  21. Investment Decisions • Businesses have an array of investment choices with varying rates of return (profit) • Keynes believed that when interest rates increase in the credit market planned investment decreased • Conversely, when interest rates decrease then planned investment increases • Therefore, there is a downward sloping investment curve

  22. Investment shifts • Investments may also shift due to: • 1. Future expectations of future sales by business people • 2. Changes in productive technology • 3. Increases or decreases in taxes

  23. Adding investment • Investment, or what is called autonomous investment, is added to the Keynesian Income Model • It is parallel and above the consumption function line • It is labeled C + I • The addition of Investment to Consumption raises the level of RGDP or National Income at the equilibrium point of the 45 degree angle

  24. The increases in Inventories • If consumers purchase fewer goods and services than anticipated this leaves firms with unsold products and inventories will rise • Businesses respond by cutting back production, to reduce unplanned business inventories, thus reducing RGDP

  25. Decreases in Inventories • If there are unplanned decreases in business inventories then business will increase production of goods and services and increase employment • Ultimately there will be an increase in real GDP

  26. Government Spending • Government spending, like investment is considered autonomous (not determined by levels of disposable income) • G in the model includes federal, state and local government spending. • However, transfer payments, like social security are not included in G.

  27. Government spending • It is estimated that government expenditures account for about 20% of GDP • The Keynesian model assumes a lump sum tax, which means that real GDP will be reduced by the amount of the lump sum tax. (This tax decreases C and I)

  28. Foreign Sector • The Foreign sector is determined by net exports (exports - imports). • Trade surpluses will increase the real GDP, and trade deficits will decrease the RGDP • The Foreign sector is also autonomous. • Together C+I+G+NX are often given the notation AE (All Expenditures) on the macro model.

  29. Relationship between models • The C+I+G+NX curve you studied in Chapters 10 and 11 is directly related to the AE curve in the Keynesian income model • The major difference is that the Keynesian income model does not include price level changes of the first Macro model we learned.

  30. Keynesian Assumptions 1. Businesses pay no indirect taxes (sales tax) 2. Businesses distribute all profits to shareholders 3. There is no depreciation 4. The economy is closed; no foreign trade

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