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Advancements in Environmental Modeling for Regional Decision-Making: Insights and Applications

This document outlines the use of environmental models in EPA Region 3, emphasizing their role in predicting future environmental states, estimating pollutant impacts on health and ecosystems, and informing cleanup and regulatory decisions. Key models discussed include AERMOD, CMAQ, and the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model. The report highlights the importance of multi-criteria decision analysis (MIRA) in fostering collaboration among stakeholders. It underscores the need for careful model assumptions and sensitivity analyses to enhance decision-making effectiveness while acknowledging models as tools complementing broader policy frameworks.

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Advancements in Environmental Modeling for Regional Decision-Making: Insights and Applications

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  1. Environmental ModelingA Regional Perspective Thomas C. Voltaggio Deputy Regional Administrator EPA Region 3

  2. Use of Models in Region 3 • Predict the future state of the environment • Estimate impacts of pollutants on human health and the environment • Provide a basis for environmental cleanup, protection and/or regulation • Estimate environmental fate of pollutants • Estimate costs and benefits of alternatives • Support in decision making

  3. Regional Examples • Air • AERMOD • CALPUFF • CMAQ • Water • Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model • Smart Growth • Anacostia River Watershed Database and Mapping • EFDC • Waste • IEUBK • Johnson and Ettinger • MODFLOW

  4. Innovation • Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA) • Decision analysis that leads to the resolution of multifaceted issues relying on both expert judgment and stakeholder values • Presented to the Region 3 states • Endorsed by the IG • Current use • Ozone designations • Fine particulate designations • Philadelphia Air Toxics Study

  5. MIRA Structure

  6. MIRA • Consensus directed discussion among decision makers and stakeholders • Improves policy decision analysis by providing the opportunity to rethink options at each stage in the process • Provides flexibility for decision makers and stakeholders • Avoids problems brought on by the application of technical fixes, discipline-bound approaches and optimization

  7. What The Executive Needs To Know • Model Assumptions • Sensitivity Analyses • Calibration History • How Precise Is It?

  8. Summary • Models successfully used in Regional decision-making • Limitations support the need for additional attention and innovation • Models are one of many tools that are utilized to ensure policy implementation and decision-making

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