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Geoscience Human Resources Emerging Risks for Resources

Geoscience Human Resources Emerging Risks for Resources. Christopher Keane American Geological Institute 28 March 2011. Four Challenges for a Sustainable Future Geoscience Workforce. First Challenge. are we at Carrying Capacity?. US Geoscience Enrollments. 1955. -. 2010. 40. ,. 000.

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Geoscience Human Resources Emerging Risks for Resources

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  1. Geoscience Human ResourcesEmerging Risks for Resources Christopher Keane American Geological Institute 28 March 2011

  2. Four Challenges for a Sustainable Future Geoscience Workforce

  3. First Challenge are we at Carrying Capacity?

  4. US Geoscience Enrollments 1955 - 2010 40 , 000 35,000 30 , 000 Undergraduate 25,000 Students 20,000 15,000 10,000 Graduate 5 , 000 0 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year

  5. US Geoscience Degrees Awarded1973-2010 8,000 7,000 6,000 d 5,000 e d r a Bachelor's w A 4,000 s e e r g e 3,000 D 2,000 Master's 1,000 Doctorate 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Source: AGI's Directory of Geoscience Departments

  6. Second Challenge can we Meet Future Needs?

  7. Attrition, Replacement, and Growthin the next 10 years in the U.S. • 125,000geoscientists expected toretire • 72,000geoscience job growthby 2018 (BLS) • 15,000totalnew graduates over the next 10 years • Or 45,000 total new graduates if you hire B.S. level • Net deficit of over 150,000by 2021

  8. Crew Change is already hittingFederal Agencies 30% 2003 s t s 25% i 2005 t n e 2007 i c s 20% 2010 o e G l 15% a t o T f o 10% t n e c r 5% e P 0% < 30 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65+ Age Group Data derived from the Office of Personnel Management fedscope database.

  9. Options for Filling the Gap • Decreasestudentattrition • Geoscience major to career is 13% (half of other STEM fields) • Importtalent • This isn’t Information Technology…. • Expanddomesticcapacity • Fundingsources • Qualityof input

  10. Geoscience Degree Completion Rates, 1973-2007Do we need a draft? but seriously… 45% Completion Rate of Geoscience Degrees 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Bachelor's Master's Ph.D. Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from AGI's Directory of Geoscience Departments, and http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

  11. Where are geoscientists? • United States: 250,000 geoscientists • Russia: 80,000 geoscientist • Europe: 60,000 geoscientists • China: 40,000 geoscientists • Canada: 20,000 geoscientists • Africa: ~10,000 geoscientists • South America: Unknown • Middle East: Unknown • Iraq: 5,000 • India: Unknown

  12. can we Import Talent?

  13. Third Challenge Quality

  14. The leading complaint of employers New graduates aren’t ready for the workforce

  15. Leading response of Academe We Educate, Not Train

  16. Degree-Granting Diversity by DepartmentEducate Yes, Workplace Aligned, No Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. MS MS MS BS BS BS 1990 1980 2000 Departments granting over 25% of all degrees Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees Departments granting the second half of all degrees 100 Departments Source: AGI/GeoRef

  17. The pews are full, but are the lights on? GeoscienceisnotAttractingthe Best,oreven the Average

  18. Mean Math SAT Scores of Selected Majors 580 All Test Takers Biology 560 Chemistry Physics 540 e r Geology, Earth or Space Science o c S T A 520 S 518 518 n 516 515 515 a 514 512 e 508 M 500 480 460 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from the College Board College - Bound Seniors, Total Group Report , 1996 - 2009

  19. Mean Writing SAT Scores by Major 530 All Test Takers 520 Biology Chemistry 510 Physics Geology, Earth, or Space Science 500 497 494 494 490 493 e r o c 480 S T A S 470 n a e M 460 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from the College Board College - Bound Seniors, Total Group Report , 2006 - 2009

  20. Fourth Challenge Maintaining Capacity Building into the Future

  21. The Prospect of Capacity Building Collapse • Lossof faculty in competencyareas • Existing Experienced Practitioners Lullthe 15-year question • Without alignment to tenure/promotion, no incentive • What happens when capacity building collapses?

  22. Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics1950s vs 1980s Environmental/Hydro Economic Geology 1950-59 Geochemistry 1980-89 Geophysics Igneous/Metamorphic Stratigraphy/Paleo Sedimentary Geology Structure/Tectonics Other 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Number of Theses and Dissertations AGI 1991

  23. Solid Earth IncentivesforFaculty? Total Geoscience Research Funding by Sub - discipline g 60% $4,000 n g i n d i n d u $3,500 n F u 50% F h c h $3,000 r ) c a r Geoscience Research Funding (USD) D e a 40% s S e e $2,500 s U R e s R n e Atmospheric sciences (%) o c e i 30% $2,000 l n c l e i n i e c M i ( s c $1,500 Geological sciences (%) o s 20% e o e G l G $1,000 a l t Oceanography (%) a o t 10% T o $500 f T o t Environmental Science (%) n 0% $0 e c r 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 e 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 P 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

  24. In Case of Emergency • Bewareof the South Africa Phenomena • Viability of Substitution • Retraining or engage Peter Smith’s “Middle Third” • Measurable economic constraint

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