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Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games

Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games. W. James Steenburgh Department of Meteorology and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction University of Utah jimsteen@met.utah.edu. Acknowledgments. Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator

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Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games

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  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games W. James Steenburgh Department of Meteorology and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction University of Utah jimsteen@met.utah.edu

  2. Acknowledgments • Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator • John Horel, Professor • Steven Lazarus. Assistant Research Professor • Daryl Onton. Postdoctoral Fellow • Carol Ciliberti, Judy Pechmann, Mike Splitt, Bryan White. Research Associates • Grad & Undergrad Students • Salt Lake City NWSFO staff and Western Region SSD personnel • NWS/KSL Olympic Weather Support forecast team • Dan Judd, Judd Communications • MesoWest data providers and collaborators • FSL developers of LDAD & FX-Net

  3. 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 Elevation (m) 50 km Northern Utah topography Olympic Region Great Salt Great Salt Lake Desert Lake Wasatch Range SLC Oquirrh Mts Stansbury Mts

  4. Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined The 2002 Olympic region

  5. Weather affects the Olympics • Competition delays & postponements • Transportation (ground and air) • Spectator safety & comfort • Medical emergency response • Security • Venue engineering • Environmental quality/air pollution • Broadcasting/Ceremonies/ Look of the Games/Cultural Events SLOC UDOT

  6. Specific weather concerns • Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake effect” • Wasatch Mts average 850-1300 cm (300-520”) of snow annually • Alta averages 49 days per year with at least 12.5 cm of snowfall 5 13 20 25 30 40 50 75 100 150 200 250 Annual SWE (cm, colorfill) and snowfall (annotated)

  7. Specific weather concerns • High winds at valley and mountain locations • Gap, downslope, or ridge-top winds; other terrain-induced flows Areas where strong ridge-top winds are a concern Gap winds Downslope winds Ski Jump venue (sensitive to moderate winds and gusts)

  8. Specific weather concerns • Valley inversions/cold pools • Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility and air quality (PM-10) Ugly Good Bad

  9. Specific weather concerns • Extreme warm or cold temperatures • Lightning • Avalanches D. Judd Westwide Avalanche Network B. Tremper

  10. Past weather during the Olympic Period • 1986 • 12-13. 2 feet of snow at Parley’s Summit with blizzard conditions • 14-18. Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys; heavy snow on slopes. Record high minimum temp (51F) at SLC • 19. 119 mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding • 24 Avalanches close Little Cottonwood • 2001 • 7. Icy roads led to numerous accidents in the Salt Lake Valley • 2000 • 7. Record high temp (58F) at Heber. Little snow at X-C venue • 1999 • 9-10. Hurricane force winds. Semis blown over on I-80. • 1994 • 10-11. Severe weather with lightning. Park City schools closed. • 22. Snowstorm during commute- over 100 accidents. Airport runways closed • 1993 • 18-21. Blizzard conditions. 50 car pileup near Point of the Mountain

  11. Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances • Atmospheric monitoring • Venue observations • Regional weather network • Computer modeling • Integration of weather observations • “High-resolution” forecasts • Point-specific venue forecasts • Basic research • Lake-effect snowstorms • Mountain snowfall • Valley inversions/cold pools

  12. Olympic venue observing network Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

  13. Venue observations at Snowbasin • Ownd by Forest Service Snowbasin, NOAA, U of Utah • Ogden Peak (OGP) • Wildcat (SWI) • Middle Bowl (SNI) • Strawberry Base (SB1) • Strawberry Top (SB2) • Along venue courses • Mt Allen (SBB-top of men’s DH) • John Paul (SBW – mid course) • Shooting Star (SSS – mid course) • Base (SBE – finish/stadium) OGP SBB SB2 SBW SSS SWI SNI SB1 SBE (Photo: Mike Powell/ALLSPORT)

  14. Venue weather web interface

  15. Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest) • Collects and integrates observations from 2900 stations and over 70 organizations • Data processed with graphical products generated every 15 minutes

  16. Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest) • 278 stations in northern Utah Olympic region • Improves analysis and forecasting of regional and local weather systems

  17. Data assimilation and analysis Parley’s Canyon SLC Weather conditions along I-80 Surface temperature and wind flow

  18. High resolution computer modeling 36 km • 3x daily 36-h forecasts at 4-km grid spacing detail future local weather conditions 4 km 12 km

  19. 04/00 04/06 04/18 05/00 03/18 04/12 Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations • Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical techniques • Forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation every hour

  20. Basic Research • Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX) • Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms • Lake-effect snowstorms • Improved knowledge and prediction • Vertical Transport and Mixing Program (VTMX) • Meteorological conditions that affect air quality in the Salt Lake Valley

  21. Sample of findings • Causes of lake-effect snowbands • Structure of Wasatch Mountain winter storms Ogden Canyon Snowbasin Weber Canyon

  22. Weather Forecasting for the OlympicsA Team Effort National Weather Service Public Forecasts/Warnings KSL Forecast Team Venue Forecasting University of Utah Forecast Support

  23. What will be the legacy after the Olympics? • Improved weather monitoring and forecasting tools will continue to be used by the National Weather Service and other meteorolgists during all seasons • Improved knowledge of Intermountain weather • The Olympic experience will identify areas where observations, computer models, or understanding is needed to improve forecasting in the future

  24. Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information • http://www.met.utah.edu/olympics • http://www.saltlake2002.com

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