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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004. ATTIKO METRO S.A. Anna Anastasaki. Objectives of the Study. Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996) Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2) Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

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  1. TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004 ATTIKO METRO S.A. Anna Anastasaki

  2. Objectives of the Study • Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996) • Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2) • Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN) • Travel Forecasts for August 2004 • Normal Operation of the City • Olympic Trips

  3. Study Area : Attica Region – Zonal System

  4. Population 1996

  5. Population 1996

  6. Trips 1996 Trips Trip Rates

  7. Daily Person Trips by Purpose Typical Summer

  8. Main Mode Split Typical Summer

  9. Hourly Demand Distribution – Private Modes

  10. Hourly Demand Distribution – Public Transport

  11. PLANNING FACTORS PUBLIC TRANSPORT (PT) NETWORK HIGHWAY NETWORK HB TRIP GENERATION GENERALISED COST PER PT MODE ( Bus, Metro) HIGHWAY MINIMUM COST PATHS PT MINIMUM COST PATHS GENERALISED COST CAR, TAXI PRODUCTIONS/ATTRACTIONS DAILY TRIPS SUB-MODE CHOICE MODEL PT GENERALISED COST MAIN MODE CHOICE MODEL TRIP DISTRIBUTION EXTERNAL TRIPS MATRIX CONVERSION ORIGIN-DESTINATION (O-D) NHB TRIPS MOTORCYCLES, TRUCKS HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT PCU VEHICLE O-D TRIP TABLE PT PASSENGER O-D TRIP TABLE PT ASSIGNMENT NO YES YES NO FINAL HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT FINAL PT ASSIGNMENT SATISFACTORY CONVERGENCE SATISFACTORY CONVERGENCE Strategic Planning Transport Model Structure (EMME/2)

  12. HB Trip Production Models • Classification Models • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other) • Car Ownership (CO, NCO) • Household Size (1-2, 3-4, 5 members) • Household Income (low, medium, high) • Zone Group Characteristics

  13. HB Trip Attraction Models • Regression Models • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other) • Independent Variables • Retail Job Positions • Non-Retail Job Positions • Population

  14. Trip Generation Models Calibration Trip Category Trip Rate Trip Productions Diff % (Pred-Obs/Obs) CO HBW 1,65 4,57% HBS 0,98 5,52% HBO 1,11 5,04% 3,74 4,96% NCO HBW 0,54 -9,44% HBS 0,32 -8,42% HBO 0,44 -8,13% 1,30 -8,75% Overall 2,67 2,08%

  15. Mode Choice Models • Sub-mode Choice • Zone level • Binary logit models • Alternatives : bus, metro • Six (6) trip categories • Main Mode Choice • Zone group level • Multinomial or nested logit models • Alternatives : walk, car, taxi, public transport • Six (6) trip categories

  16. Trip Distribution Models • Zone group level • Gravity model • Six (6) trip categories • Four (4) main modes • Inner ring effects for car mode (HBW, HBO)

  17. Trip Assignment • Highway Network • 10 classes of users • BPR volume-delay functions  links • HCM volume-delay functions  intersections • Public Transport Network • Six (6) trip categories • Transit time function by mode

  18. Network Data - 1996 • Centroids  1246 • Nodes  5000  signalised : 1030 priority : 670 • Centroid connectors  5300 • Road links  12000 • Transit lines  470 • Bus stops  1730 • Metro stations  23 • Pedestrian links  12800

  19. Network Calibration • Highway Network • GEH  overall : 6,0  sector level : 4,8 – 8,8 • Public Transport Network • GEH  bus : 9,3  metro : 7,7

  20. Highway Network - Summer 1996

  21. Public Transport Network - Summer 1996

  22. Travel Demand Forecasts - 2004 • Network Scenarios • Basic (1) • Alternative (4) • Trip Matrices • Summer Period Trips • Olympic Trips • Time Periods • 8-9 : morning peak • 17-18 : afternoon peak • 22-23 : evening peak

  23. Traffic Management Model (SATURN) • 400 zones • Olympic Highway Network (main and secondary) • Trip Matrices Data from EMME/2 Transport Model • Exclusive use by “Athens 2004”  test and evaluate traffic management schemes related to Olympic Venues

  24. EMME/2 – GIS - SATURN System Integration Unix server Window NT Running SATURN Emme/2 scenarios Emme/2 Matrices Exchange Interface Windows NTs GIS Data Exchange Interface Data Exchange Interface Road network GIS database Land use Windows 2000

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