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Development Models after Financial Crises

Development Models after Financial Crises. Francis Fukuyama Stanford University. State of Democracy around the World. The Third Wave World went from ~35 to over 120 electoral democracies, 1970-2010 A Global Middle Class Total world output quadrupled, 1970-2000

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Development Models after Financial Crises

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  1. Development Models after Financial Crises Francis Fukuyama Stanford University

  2. State of Democracy around the World • The Third Wave • World went from ~35 to over 120 electoral democracies, 1970-2010 • A Global Middle Class • Total world output quadrupled, 1970-2000 • Goldman Sachs: 3 middle income quintiles will rise from 31 to 57% of total income • EISS: global middle class rises from 1.8 (2009) to 3.2 (2020) to 4.9B (2030

  3. Emerging Market Democracies • Middle class growth lies behind consolidation of new democracies • Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa • Impact of middle class growth on the Arab Spring

  4. What’s the alternative? • Churchill: “Democracy is the worst system of government, except for all the others” • Authoritarian capitalism: • Russia • China

  5. State of Democracy in the Developed World • European Union • Japan • United States

  6. A Case for Economic Renewal in the United States • Natural gas revolution produced by hydraulic fracturing • Shale gas production increased 19% 2008-2012 • Will increase from 23 to 50% of total production • Domestic oil production also increasing • Went from 5.0 to 6.1 Mb/D 2008-2012 • Share of imported oil fell from 60 to 30% of total consumption, 2005-2012 • US may achieve energy independence in a decade

  7. After the Washington Consensus • What it was • What was right about it: • Openness and competition critical to growth • China, India all benefited • What was wrong: • Free markets are not self-regulating • Unfettered competition produces inequalities • Success depends on quality institutions

  8. Some Implications for Mongolia • Resource curse • Resources are a curse depending on the quality of governance • Norway v. Nigeria or Angola • Need to attend to economic inequality • And hence to social investment

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