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National Integrated Drought Information System

National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012. Outline. Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden , FSU, Florida Climate Center

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National Integrated Drought Information System

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  1. National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012

  2. Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater – Chris Smith, USGS Apalachicola Salinity – Jenna Wanat, ANERR Reservoir status and outlook – Bailey Crane, USACE Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden Streamflow forecasts – Todd Hammil, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion

  3. New Climate and Weather Page http://www.aces.edu/climate/

  4. Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

  5. 7-day Rainfall Totals

  6. Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days http://water.weather.gov/precip/

  7. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  8. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  9. Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500) Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  10. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  11. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  12. Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer) http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  13. Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve East Bay Cat Point Dry Bar

  14. 5-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

  15. 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

  16. U.S. Drought Outlook

  17. Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) NOAA 70% chance of 9-15 named storms 4-8 Hurricanes 1-3 Major Hurricanes Alberto

  18. Formation Regions and Landfalls

  19. 1-Month Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows June 4 – July 4 2012 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Columbus Below Normal Albany WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

  20. 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows June 4 – September 4 2012 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Below Normal Columbus WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

  21. Summary Although Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to NE Florida and SE Georgia, very little fell in the ACF River Basin so drought continues throughout most of the basin, with significant areas classified as extreme or exceptional Streamflows in the upper basin are in the range of 10 to 24% of historical observations, whereas streamflow levels in the lower basin are below any previous observations Groundwater in Miller County, GA remains in the range of the lowest 10% of historic observations Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 15 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 25 ppt at Cat Point, and 30 ppt at Dry Bar

  22. Summary The 5-day outlook for rainfall is fair, with about 2 inches in the southern part of the basin but less than 1 inch in the northern part of the basin. Current ENSO conditions are neutral, but their remains about a 50% chance that El Niño will develop in the fall Both Colorado State U and NOAA forecast similar numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes for this summer, but the forecast does not predict where or whether these storms will make landfall The streamflow forecast for the next 1 and 3 months continues to show a high probability that streamflows will remain below normal

  23. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Chris Smith, USGS Jenna Wanat, ANERR Bailey Crane, US ACE Todd Hammil, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  24. Thank you! Next briefing – 14 June 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb New Climate and Weather Page http://www.aces.edu/climate/ Please send comments and suggestions to: ktingram@ufl.edu

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