National Integrated Drought Information System

1. National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 09 October 2012

2. Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, SECC Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Summary of lake conditions – Bailey Crane, USACE Salinity of Apalachicola Bay – Jenna Wanat, ANERR Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE RFC

3. Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

4. Persistent Troughing Pattern

5. 7 Day Precipitation Totals

6. Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Since Jan. 1 http://water.weather.gov/precip/

7. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

8. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflowas compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

9. Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500) Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

10. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

11. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

12. Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer) http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

13. USACE – ACF Operations

15. Average Inflow into ACF Projects By Month

16. Lake Lanier

17. West Point

18. W.F. George

19. Woodruff

20. 2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

21. Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve East Bay Cat Point Dry Bar

25. 5-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

26. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

27. Near Surface Winds

28. Multivariate ENSO Index

29. 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 3 Month 1 Month

30. Fall Rainfall Climatology

31. U.S. Drought Outlook

32. Tropical Outlook

33. 1-Month Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows October 4 – November 4th 2012 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Columbus Below Normal Albany WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

35. 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows October 4th 2012 – January 4th 2013 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Below Normal Columbus WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

36. Summary Persistent troughing and slow-moving frontal boundaries have kept the Southeast and ACF basin in a moist pattern during the past two weeks, which has decreased the area of the ACF that is still under drought. A small area in the northern part of the basin received from 4 to 6 inches during the past 7 days. The rest of the basin received 0.25 to 3 inches. Streamflowsrecovered sharply in the northern part of the basin, but the southern streamflows are still at or below the historical low observations.

37. Summary Ground water levels in the southern part of the basin remain near historical low observations. Reservoir levels have recovered slightly, but remain well below the historical average and mostly within conservation zone 3. Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 20 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 22 ppt at Dry Bar, but are about 30 ppt at Cat Point, which is above the level that can injure oysters.

38. Summary The 5-day precipitation forecast for calls for no rain in the basin. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have dropped considerably since late August are now firmly in the Neutral range, which diminshes the likelihood that El Niño will develop. ENSO Neutral conditions are still more favorable than La Niña for a fall and winter recharge, so the 1-month rainfall outlook calls for slightly above average rainfall in the southern part of the basin and the 3-month outlook calls for above average rainfall throughout the entire basin.

39. Summary The 1-month streamflow forecast for Lake Lanier inflows has changed to the normal range but all other locations remain below normal. The 3-month streamflow forecasts show that streamflows are likely to be normal or above normal for Lake Lanier, but for all other locations have the highest probability of below normal streamflows, though the probabilities of normal and above normal streamflows have increased during the past two weeks.

40. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Bailey Crane, US ACE Jenna Wanat, ANERR Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information • General drought information • http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu • General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ • Streamflow monitoring & forecasting • http://waterwatch.usgs.gov • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ • Groundwater monitoring • http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

41. Thank you! Next briefing 23 October 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb Please send comments and suggestions to: ktingram@ufl.edu