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Advanced Modeling Techniques for Cyclone Forecasting and Diagnostic Development

Enhance statistical intensity models, diagnostic techniques, and forward modeling to improve tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy. Implement new methodologies for track forecast diagnostics and physical parameterization impact studies. Expand global ensemble model classification and develop prototype ensemble products. Analyze cyclone characteristics at convective scales and adapt vortex initialization schemes for advanced models.

clarke-mcbride
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Advanced Modeling Techniques for Cyclone Forecasting and Diagnostic Development

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  1. 6.1.5 Development of statistical intensity models with multiple regional and global model input

  2. 6.1.10 Provide initialization and large-scale diagnostic code to EMC for 2011 season pre-implementation testing

  3. 6.1.11 Extend ESRL global ensemble model cyclone classification system, including TC genesis, and develop prototype ensemble products

  4. 6.1.12 Develop new diagnostic techniques for intensity and structure, including Holland B and balance model parameters, Lagrangian metrics for HWRF and AHW, COAMPS-TC adjoint-based diagnostics, and ensemble-based sensitivity studies for AHW

  5. 6.1.13 Vortex and convective scale analysis of HWRFx and HWRF, including comparison with Doppler radar and GPS dropsondes, and histogram analysis of HWRF and AHW

  6. 6.1.14 Adapt COAMPS-TC vortex initialization scheme for use in HWRF

  7. 6.1.15 Develop track forecast diagnostics and perform physical parameterization impact studies for COAMPS-TC

  8. 6.2.1 Develop forward modeling for microwave satellite imagery to HWRF post-processing

  9. 6.2.2 Expand development of forward modeling for IR imagery to include other HFIP models, and create database of observed GOES data for comparison

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