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Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment

Coping With City Shrinkage: A Critical Review of Housing Market and Urban Development Policies in the City of Erfurt (Germany) 2001 – 2011. Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment Property Management and Development Group. Eisenhüttenstadt/Stalinstadt 2010.

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Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment

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  1. Coping With City Shrinkage:A Critical Review of Housing Market and Urban Development Policiesin the City of Erfurt (Germany) 2001 – 2011 Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment Property Management and Development Group

  2. Eisenhüttenstadt/Stalinstadt 2010 Source: http://www.welt.de/kultur/article9231174/Eisenhuettenstadt-Stalinstadt-Eisenhuettenstadt.html (24/03/2011).

  3. Background • Research is based on previous findings of Master Thesis, completed in 2001 (University of Kaiserslautern, Germany) • Today’s presentation refers to initial results of on-going review of urban development policies and housing market strategies in the City of Erfurt over the past 10 years

  4. Overview Introduction: Urban development trends in Germany before/after 1990 Focus: Housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Case study: Housing market in the City of Erfurt, Thuringia Review of Erfurt’s housing market strategies and urban development policies between 2001 – 2011 Conclusions and outlook

  5. Population in Germany – 1990 Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).

  6. Population in Germany – 2000 Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).

  7. Population in Germany – 2010 Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).

  8. Population in Germany – 2060 Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).

  9. ‘We are shrinking and getting older.’

  10. Economic transformation/recession Industry/ Production Finance Unemployed persons Services GDP (= BIP) Retail Source: http://www.destatis.de/ (28/03/2011).

  11. Share of Brownfield Sites across Germany Source: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/IzR/2010/1/GrafikenKarten.html (28/03/2011).

  12. Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/IzR/2010/1/GrafikenKarten.html (28/03/2011).

  13. Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: http://www.uni-leipzig.de/isb/squ/index.php?main=2 (24/03/2011).

  14. The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 • Approx. 776,000new dwellings builtbetween 1991 - 1999 Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).

  15. The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Migration between 1980 – 1999 -746,000 Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).

  16. The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Vacant dwellings according to Microcensus 1998:→ 729,000 dwellings = 13.2% of whole stock Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).

  17. Case study: Erfurt, Thuringia Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 25.

  18. Erfurt’s housing market – present stock (2006) Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 46.

  19. Erfurt’s overall settlement structure Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 47.

  20. Erfurt 2020 – Urban development ‘Leitbild’ Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 117.

  21. Erfurt 2020 – Diversified intervention framework Example of a refurbished large housing estate Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 125 & 127.

  22. Erfurt 2020 – Allocated funding & interventions Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 133.

  23. Review of Erfurt’s policy framework between 2001 – 2011: some initial reflections • Situation 2001: Draft local land use plan (FNP); no ISEK;Masterplan I; INNOVA (i.e. private consultancy) survey reports on housing market related issues only • Situation 2011: Adopted local land use plan; ISEK 2020; revised Masterplan II;urban development monitoring system • disintegrated policy situation in 2001; also reflected by fragmented institutional responsibilities • improved integration of relevant policies and institutions through collaborative work on comprehensive informal and formal urban development policies (i.e. FNP & ISEK) and housing market specific Masterplan II

  24. Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 44.

  25. Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications • Masterplan I (city council & 4 large housing societies): - focus on demolition of large-scale GDR industrial housing stock (especially, estates built after 1970s’ and in suburban areas), - although also high vacancy rates in historical city centre > reason: in the longer-term, development of inner-city locations is regarded more sustainable • But: What happens to vacant sites? Any interim or longer- term solutions? What are the wider implications of demolished infrastructure? How can diverse private owners of historical housing stock in city-centre be persuaded to refurbish their properties?

  26. Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their implications Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 42; BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 53, 83.

  27. Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their (potential) implications • Masterplan II: - summary re demolition: 7,555 dwellings in total until 2009; vacancy rate dropped from 15.1% (2002) to 4.6% (GDR industrial housing stock only) > now classified as ‘stable conditions’ - successful integration in comprehensive urban development strategy: long-term planning & development objectives (> 2020): reasonable mix of flexibility & clear constraints - revised focus on consolidation of selected areas & parts of the City’s housing stock, based on urban ‘Leitbild’ • But: How will Erfurt cope with projected 2. wave of shrinkage and need for extensive refurbishment from 2016 onwards?

  28. Some initial conclusions • Obvious policy shift between 2001 – 2011: from demolition to careful development/refurbishment > sustaining • Comprehensive urban development/land use policy framework has become primary source of consultation & must now provide base for future integration • Thus, for example, all housing market (monitoring & development) strategies – incl. allocation requirements of state funding etc. – must be embedded in this framework • Present and most significant shortcoming: missing (city-) regional perspective on urban development, housing market and related policy-making: inter-city cooperation often hampered by negative perceptions and competition…

  29. Focus of future research • Qualitative part:Further in-depth investigation & evaluation of effectiveness and integrative capacity of urban development and housing market policies in Erfurt • Quantitative part:Collection, analysis and modelling of available demographic and housing market data in order to evaluate the performance of specific market segments, related targets and measures > could be used as a ‘tool’ for informing future policy-making

  30. Thank you! simone.allin@ntu.ac.uk Source: BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 94.

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