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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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  1. Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee Wednesday, March 24, 2010

  2. Committee Members • Mark Eddy – OR Social Learning Center • Judge Tom Hart - Marion • Donna Keddy – DHS • David Koch – Mult Co. (on phone) • Jeff Lichtenberg – Jefferson Co. • Torri Lynn – Linn Co. • Colette Peters - OYA

  3. Introductions • Committee Business – Chairperson • Roundtable – Possible forecast issues, Juvenile justice trends • Background – DOC, PSR, DCC (discretionary) Populations • Demand Forecast • Options • Close Custody Populations • Prior, Preliminary Forecast • Statistical Summary Next Meeting: Wednesday September 1st, 1:30 BAM Conference Room

  4. Background • Close Custody Groups: • Adult Court Beds – “DOC” • Public Safety Reserve Beds – “PSR” • Discretionary Close Custody – “DCC” (DBA) • DOC and PSR: direct forecasts. • DCC forecast is for bed “demand”. • Committee defines “current demand” • Objective measure is desirable

  5. Demand Forecast • April 2010 forecast • Continuation of past approach • Based on info from Referrals (Abuse?, JCP?) • Index applied to demand used for April 2009 forecast • Provide “Level of Service” indices? • Discuss options (different approach) • Lack maturity – better to wait • Availability of forecaster resource • Algorithmic / Purely Objective • “Level of Service” indices • County Resource Levels (David)

  6. Demand Forecast • April 2010 Forecast • DCC bed demand of 550 in early 2009 • Index approach 2009 to 2010 and forecast • Simple index graphs (# felonies) • Reduction to around 500 • Question assumption of future demand increase

  7. Demand

  8. Demand

  9. Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR

  10. Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR

  11. Forecasts – DCC, DOC, PSR Index Adjusted to Reference=550 in Early 2009 Prior DCC Forecast Preliminary DCC Forecast DOC and PSR – Essentially Unchanged

  12. Demand Forecast Option One • Based on Referral, JCP, Abuse information • Indices for Serious, Moderate, Low • Examples, Number in DCC over time • Committee input on factors • What matters for “demand” • OYA or Committee justify appropriate connection to beds

  13. Demand Forecast Option Two • Based on above Plus County/Community treatment availability • “ascertain relationship between youth’s risk and access to services” • Aggregate criminality in excess of available service? • OYA vs overall need? • Complex

  14. Demand – Bottom Line • Absolute measure does not exist • Index measures: • Can quantify youth characteristics • Can compare to available services • Can quantify entry/stay from history • Can compare now relative to past • Interpretation of Index • Subjectivity connecting index measures to number of beds.

  15. Other Forecast Issues • Include Low, Mid, High indices (if possible) • Input on factors? • Planned update to community forecast • Unlikely to change • Provide with regular forecast • Appendix or something – thoughts?

  16. Prison Intakes by Age

  17. Prison Intakes by Age

  18. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other) • Rate shows stronger decline • Felony Referral Graphs • A/B/C and Person/Other

  19. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals by Year and Class

  20. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

  21. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other 53% Drop 30% Drop

  22. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals -- Race and Type 2000 2009 Other Person Related

  23. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp • Number of committed juveniles – total • Includes state, local, public, private • Calculated Rate: number per 100,000 • Using ages 9-17 for total population • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp • Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006 “Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.” Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook." Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/

  24. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999 311 213

  25. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006 232 173

  26. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Change in Rate – 1999 to 2006 -19% -25%

  27. Possible Factors • Demographics • Current Offense • Prior Offenses • Previous OYA Supervision • JCP Assessments DHS’s Abuse

  28. Possible Factors

  29. Explanatory Ability How much better than chance alone… • Demographics – 3x (race/ethnic, sex, county) • Current Offense – 3x • OYA history, JCP, Abuse history – 11x • Prior Offenses – 12x (DB: youth in state??) • Current, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 12x • Demographics, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 13x • Current, Prior, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 15x • “Everything” – 16x • ***Age*** (can’t remember)

  30. Demand