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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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  1. Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee Wednesday, February 24, 2010

  2. Committee Members • Mark Eddy • Judge Tom Hart - Marion • Donna Keddy – DHS • David Koch – Mult Co. • Jeff Lichtenberg – Jefferson Co. • Torri Lynn – Linn Co. • Colette Peters - OYA

  3. Introductions • Background • Review of Executive Orders • Discretionary Beds, Demand • Forecast Issues (Roundtable) • Statistical Summaries Next Meeting: Wednesday March 24, 1:30 BAM Conference Room

  4. Basics • Forecast how many kids Oregon Youth Authority will supervise. • Started 1998. Demand added 2004. • Forecast used for budgeting and planning. • Staff does the technical work. DAS, OEA, CJC, OYA, DOC • Committee advises, provides direction, buy off.

  5. Basics • Different groups forecasted Close Custody – Discretionary, DOC, PSR • Forecast released April 15, Oct. 15. • Projects populations monthly for 10 years. • This all happens per executive order. • OYA

  6. Executive Orders • EO 98-06 • Established advisory committee • Set forecast dates, what to forecast, etc. • Forecast used for budgeting and long term planning • EO 04-02 • added demand: "...committee shall define the current demand for discretionary beds...“ "...definition to be used to forecast demand for...discretionary bed allocation..." • Note: latitude in defining demand • EO 08-15 • Reaffirmed the orders through year 2014

  7. Discretionary Beds • Close custody beds • Not Measure 11 offenses (serious person) • E.g., Burglary 1, Theft 1, UUMV, Assault 3, Sex Abuse 1 • Bed space allocated for county use • Filled to capacity – budget level • Assume: More capacity would be used

  8. Demand • Reference level of demand • Index applied to reference level • Relative measure of criminality over time • Early on: counter-intuitive implications for technical reasons (re-base reference) • Recently: demand tied to prior forecast

  9. Demand – Considerations • Useful for • budgeting • planning • Need committee action • Credible, objective, consistent • Index approach • Reference level

  10. Forecast Issues • Recent law changes • Current policy and practices • County diversionary funding • Tracking: population has been slightly below forecast • Forecast direction: small reduction, possible trend adjustment.

  11. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Referrals to county juvenile departments • Source: JJIS (minor adjustments) • Year 2000 to Year 2009 • Number, annual percent change • Offense Breakdowns: • Felony, misdemeanor., A, B, C, severity • Person related, other • Race, sex, county

  12. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

  13. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

  14. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other) • Rate shows stronger decline (referrals per juvenile).

  15. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals

  16. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals by Year and Class

  17. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

  18. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other 53% Drop 30% Drop

  19. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Felony Referrals -- Race and Type 2000 2009 Other Person Related

  20. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Fel. Ref. -- Reduction by County -- Annual %

  21. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Reduction by County – Overall %

  22. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals • Violations/other are similar to misdemeanors referrals in overall number and in change from 2000 to 2009

  23. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals by Year and Class

  24. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Close Custody Population • DCC – Discretionary • DOC – Adult Court • More serious person crimes (M11) • PSR – Public Safety Reserve • More serious person crimes (M11) • Too young for adult court • …or first entry…

  25. Statistical SummariesDecade 2000 • Number of Youths in Close Custody Dec. 2002 Jan. 2010 Total=1,060 Total=869 PSR=182 PSR=86 DOC=278 DOC=368 DCC=600 DCC=415

  26. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp • Number of committed juveniles – total • Includes state, local, public, private • Calculated Rate: number per 100,000 • Using ages 9-17 for total population • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp • Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006 “Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.” Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook." Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/

  27. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999 311 213

  28. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006 232 173

  29. Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons • Change in Rate – 1999 to 2006 -19% -25%