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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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  1. Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee September 22, 2010 DAS Exec. Building 155 Cottage, BAM Conference Torri Lynn (Chair) Linn County Juvenile Department Mark Eddy, Ph.D. Oregon Social Learning Center Donna Keddy Oregon Department of Human Services David Koch Multnomah County Juvenile Department Jeffrey Lichtenberg Jefferson County Juvenile Department Colette Peters Oregon Youth Authority <Vacant>

  2. Introductions, Business: Meeting Minutes (Torri, Liz) • Forecast: DOC, PSR, DCC Demand (Damon) • Committee Action: Define Demand • Discussion Items (Damon) • Forecast document content – narratives, stats to include, changes • Forecast release logistics, notifications • Follow-up information report as background • Explain referral-based demand index; unmet demand versus total demand; importance. • Moving forward: developing community-based demand model • Roundtable (Torri, Group) • Next Year Meetings • Regular Meetings: • Wednesdays 1:30 to 3:30, Location TBA (somewhere in Salem) • March 2, 2011 and March 30, 2011 (April Forecast) • August 31, 2011 and September 28, 2011 (April Forecast) • Meetings for Forecast Development: • Week of November 8th to 12th (Small Group) • Wednesday, January 12th, 1:30 to 3:30 (Full Group – report development)

  3. Population Trends and Tracking Close Custody Populations – past decade

  4. Population Trends and Tracking Close Custody Populations – past decade

  5. Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Long Term

  6. Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Actual, Forecast Error: +1.6% (Forecast is high by 6 beds) Error: +5% (Forecast is high by 4 beds)

  7. Discretionary Demand Forecast • Committee Defines Demand • Previously: Tied to index for April 2009 • Referenced index: Demand was 550 beds in early 2009 • Followed index since • About a 7% decrease since last forecast.

  8. Discretionary Demand Forecast Drop in Demand Index – Past 6 Months • Negative 7% change in index (-7%) • Simple count measures – similar: • N Felony Referrals: -7% AF -5%, BF -7%, CF -9% • Cumulative Prior Felony Referrals: -8% • N of All Referrals: -4% • Sum of Severity of All Referrals: -6% • N of Class A Misdemeanors: -11% • 7% of 500 = 35  500 – 35 = 465 • 12 month, regression, Peak-to-Peak, etc.

  9. Discretionary Demand Forecast DCC Demand and Referral Trends

  10. Discretionary Demand Forecast DCC Demand and Referral Trends

  11. Discretionary Demand Forecast Committee Action: - Define Demand

  12. Community Demand Forecast • Tied to the DCC forecast • -7% Scenario would give: • April 2010 Value  October 2010 Value • Probation total: 652  606 • Residential total: 658  625 (~5%) • …subject to improvement…

  13. Damon’s Discussion Items • Forecast document content – narratives, stats, changes • Forecast release: Post to web, press release, notifications. • Possible interim statistical report • Demand index, unmet demand vs. total demand. • Moving forward: community-based demand model

  14. Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth • Current referral-based approach: • Drop in demand more than practitioners’ observations • Assessment of all criminal referrals • How can the model ‘see’ the practitioner viewpoint? • Kids on probation or parole - “community youth” • County or OYA supervision • … versus “anyone who’s ever been referred” • Risk pool • Cleaner: better defined, more consistent • More closely tied to actual behavior since reviewed • Keep until adult? • Handles repeat entries (half or more)

  15. Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth • Potential Factors to Include • Referral information (same info as current) • Most recent referral • History of referrals for youth • Probation violations – no data • Detention episodes • Current supervision (esp. Parole)

  16. Roundtable • Juvenile Justice Issues • Observed Trends • …

  17. Meeting Schedule • Regular Meetings: • Wednesdays 1:30 to 3:30, Location TBA (somewhere in Salem) • March 2, 2011 March 30, 2011 (pre-April) • August 31, 2011 Sept. 28, 2011 (pre-October) • Meetings for Forecast Development: • Week of November 8th to 12th (Small Group) • Wednesday, January 12th, 1:30 to 3:30 (Full Group – report development)

  18. Meeting Schedule http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/custommenu.html

  19. http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/oya.shtml