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Course Introduction: Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices

Course Introduction: Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices. Kevin Werner, CBRFC. Outline. Overview of the day Introductions Overview of forecast process. Course Goals. Description of current and future water supply forecast techniques

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Course Introduction: Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices

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  1. Course Introduction:Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices Kevin Werner, CBRFC

  2. Outline • Overview of the day • Introductions • Overview of forecast process

  3. Course Goals • Description of current and future water supply forecast techniques • Interactive discussions on decision making under uncertainty • Multi-directional discussions are important to improve forecast and decision making paradigms

  4. Course Agenda Course materials: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/shortcourse/agenda.htm

  5. Introductions • Name • What you do • What you want from this course

  6. Water Supply Forecast Overview SWS (Statistical Prediction) Official Coordinated Forecast ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination (Water and Climate Center) Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  7. Forecast Methods Statistical Forecasting Statistical Regression Equations Primary NOAA/RFC forecast method from 1940’s to mid 1990’s. Primary NRCS/NWCC forecast method Historical Relationships between flow, snow, & precipitation (1971-2000+) Tied to a fixed runoff period (inflexible) Ensemble Simulation Model Forecasting A component of a continuous conceptual model (NWSRFS) Continuous real time inputs (temperature, precipitation, forecasts) Accounts for soil moisture states (SAC-SMA) - drives runoff efficiency Builds and melts snowpack (Snow-17) – output feeds SAC-SMA Flexible run date, forecast period, forecast parameters. Evolving toward ESP as primary forecast tool at NOAA/RFCs

  8. Statistical 50% exceedance Forecast: 222 kac-ft

  9. Ensemble 50% exceedance Forecast: 230 kac-ft

  10. Forecast Coordination • Forecasts are coordinated with NRCS on a monthly basis. Forecasters at each agency compare forecasts, analyze differences, and come up with a official, coordinated forecast. NRCS Preferred Forecast: 235 kac-ft NOAA Preferred Forecast: 225 kac-ft Coordinated Forecast: 230 kac-ft

  11. Water Supply Forecast Overview SWS (Statistical Prediction): 222 KAF Official Coordinated Forecast: 230 KAF ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) : 230 KAF (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) : 236 KAF Forecast Coordination NOAA: 225 KAF NRCS: 236 KAF (Water and Climate Center) Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  12. NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook 2008 (version 2) 2010 (version 4): wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov 2009 (version 3)

  13. Water Supply Forecasts in Western USA National Water Resources Outlook Map Map Forecast Overview Forecast Overview Forecast Evolution – display of forecast and observed streamflow progression Ensemble Forecast – display tool for monthly ESP forecasts Ensemble Forecast – display tool for monthly ESP forecasts Verification – Many, many verification plots and graphics Climate variability – Streamflow / climate index relationship plot

  14. New Paradigms? ESP & HEFS NRCS VIPER SWS ESP NRCS Forecaster Forecaster User User

  15. Today’s Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) Official Coordinated Forecast ESP (HydrologicModel Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination (Water and Climate Center) Statistical Water Supply Prediction: Dave Garen and Gus Goodbody, NRCS 2 hours Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  16. Today’s Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) Official Coordinated Forecast ESP (HydrologicModel Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination (Water and Climate Center) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Introduction: Kevin Berghoff, NWRFC Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System and Forecast Verification advances: James Brown, NWS/OHD Hands on ESP and verification exercises: Kevin Werner, CBRFC Kristen Averyt, WWA Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  17. Today’s Short Course Intro to Risk Based Decision Making: BPA Case Study Travis Togo, BPA Scenario Exercises for Risk Based Decision Making Kevin Werner, CBRFC Kristen Averyt, WWA SWS (Statistical Prediction) Official Coordinated Forecast ESP (Simulation Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination (Water and Climate Center) Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  18. Today’s Short Course Water Supply Forecasting and Climate Change Levi Brekke, USBR SWS (Statistical Prediction) Official Coordinated Forecast ESP (HydrologicModel Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination (Water and Climate Center) Other Inputs . . . . Decisions Water Managers and Users

  19. Course Goals • Description of current and future water supply forecast techniques • Interactive discussions on decision making under uncertainty • Multi-directional discussions are important to improve forecast and decision making paradigms

  20. Questions?

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