Extinctions: past and present

1. Extinctions: past and present Bio 415/615

2. Questions 1. How do species go extinct? 2. How is the ‘background’ extinction rate calculated? 3. What caused mass extinctions in the geologic record?

3. How many documented extinctions have there been in the last 500 years? ~75 plant extinctions ~600 animal extinctions

5. Some species are more vulnerable to extinction Species on islands (or isolated habitats) e.g., ground nesting birds e.g., ‘naïve’ species: megafauna Extinction due to predation, not (usually) competition

6. Mauritius Tambalacoque Raphus cucullatus: extinct mid/late 1600s

9. Historic extinctions

10. Some species are more vulnerable to extinction Species with small geographic ranges narrowly distributed endemic species Species with 1 or a few populations (e.g. Devil’s Hole Pup Fish, Nevada)

12. Five ways to go extinct

13. Extinction via reticulation Grey Ducks & Mallards

14. Extinction via competition/predation e.g., extinction on islands, the lighthouse keeper’s cat Stephens Island Wren (NZ)

15. Extinction via over-exploitation Pleistocene megafauna? NZ moas

16. Extinction via habitat destruction Ivory-billed woodpecker (?) Dusky seaside sparrow: extinct in the wild since 1979, last died in captivity in 1987 (DisneyWorld)

17. Extinction via changing environmental conditions Golden toad (Cranopsis periglenes), formerly of Costa Rica

18. Mass Extinction – A major episode of extinction for many taxa, occurring fairly suddenly in the fossil record 5 historic mass extinction events

19. Mass Extinction Events & Change in diversity

20. What causes mass extinctions?

21. Flood basalts and vulcanism Central Atlantic group (180 mya) Siberian traps (250 mya) Columbia River group (17-14 mya) Deccan traps (65 mya)

22. Returning to the K-T Boundary: • ? Why did Dinosaurs go extinct? • ? Why did Mammals and Birds become the dominant terrestrial vertebrates? • Because of, • a giant asteroid impact like the movie Armageddon • global patterns of cooling • C. the extinction of food the Dinosaurs depended on

23. Alvarez et al. 1980. Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction. Science 208: 1095-1108. Believed that a giant asteroid had hit the earth, that this had caused a dense cover of particulate matter in the atmosphere that blocked the sun, causing global cooling, and the death of many plants They predicted that an iridium layer should separate cretaceous from tertiary strata Swisher et al. 1992, also published in Science, found the asteroid crater on the ocean covered continental shelf of the Yucatan

24. Mammals and Birds came to dominance after the Dinosaurs went extinct 65 million years ago. This happened at the boundary between the Cretaceous and Tertiary Periods (or the K-T boundary), which is also the boundary between the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Eras Mass Extinction – a major episode of extinction for many taxa, occurring fairly suddenly in the fossil record

25. We don’t know how quickly the extinctions occurred following the asteroid impact: Bad weekend versus bad century (versus bad few million years?) Either way: a lot of species (millions) went extinct in a relatively short period of time

26. Are human mediated changes in the environment causing another mass extinction? Three questions: 1. Have there been more extinctions recently then we expect by chance? 2. What are ‘normal’ background levels of extinctions? 3. Do we expect more rapid extinction events in the near future?

27. Background levels of extinction: Estimates of paleo extinctions derived from wide-ranging marine animals. Average species may survive for 1-10 million years If 10 million species on the planet then estimate the loss of a total of 1-10 species per year So ‘background’ extinction rate is 0.0001-0.00001% of species per year Current rate of bird and mammal loss is 0.01 % per year 100 – 1000 times greater then background levels

28. Background levels of extinction: • But… • Regan (2001) examined estimate and readjusted calculations to 36-78 times background levels • Estimates based on wide-ranging taxa may lead to erroneous conclusions • Average values calculated on short time intervals (e.g. the last 500 yrs) may lead to erroneous conclusions

29. Pimm et al. 2006: birds • About 10,000 bird species known • 129 recorded extinctions since 1500 = 26 extinctions per million species per year (compare to ‘background’ of ~1 E/MSY) • BUT: • We keep finding new remains of extinct species • Many species are ‘on the verge’ or already gone but remain on lists • Conservation efforts have prevented many extinctions • Added to total, these estimates of more cryptic extinctions yields ~150 E/MSY • If present habitat loss continues, rate could get to 1500 E/MSY by 2100

30. The big question: Do we expect rates of extinction to accelerate in the near future?

31. The big question: Do we expect rates of extinction to accelerate in the near future? • We might because of: • Habitat destruction • Global climate change

32. The big question: Do we expect rates of extinction to accelerate in the near future? • We might because of: • Habitat destruction • Global climate change But what if ‘sensitive’ species have already gone extinct?