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Statistics for Measuring Growth and Structural Change

Statistics for Measuring Growth and Structural Change

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Statistics for Measuring Growth and Structural Change

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  1. Statistics for Measuring Growth and Structural Change International Forum on Monitoring National Development 27-29 September 2011 Beijing, PRC Douglas H. Brooks Asian Development Bank

  2. Traditional measures of growth and structural change National income gross domestic product gross national income Employment and GDP shares of industry agriculture manufacturing services

  3. But there are inherent limitations in these measures Growth: National income (Stiglitz and Sen 2009) • Sustainability • Quality of products • Market development • Inequality • Structural Change: Employment or GDP • by sector share • Factor endowments • Factor specificity • Informal sector • Competition

  4. These limitations translate to inadequate understanding of the process of structural change and growth • How endowments influence the optimal structure of an economy and its growth pattern • Channels through which binding constraints affect structural change and growth • The role of the informal sector in structural change and growth • The role of the government in structural change and growth

  5. Wish list: How endowments influence the optimal structure and growth pattern. • Disaggregated accounting of factors of production • Balance sheet of a country’s wealth Channels through which binding constraints affect structural change and growth. • Market structure information of industries • Regular firm and enterprise surveys

  6. Wish list: The role of the informal sector in structural change and growth • Regular Informality surveys (folded into LFS) • Informality by industry The role of the government in structural change • Addressing market failures • Time use surveys • Addressing information asymmetry • Market structure • Policy coordination • Risk protection (insurance, safety nets) • Active industrial policy?

  7. Meanwhile, conventional measures can be complemented with other existing indicators • Focus on households (Stiglitz and Sen 2009) • Wealth and disposable income • Per capita vs. median income • Information from household surveys • Other indexes (ex. HDI)

  8. The FIGI is one such effort Inclusive Growth • Growth • productive jobs and economic opportunity • Access to • education, health, and other social services Social safety nets Governance and Institutions ADB’s “Framework for Inclusive Growth Indicators” presents 35 indicators of inclusive growth http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/ 2011/pdf/KI2011-Special-Supplement.pdf

  9. Other issues that can be addressed in the short term are… • Regularity of household surveys • Expansion of existing household surveys • Institutional quality indicators

  10. In the medium and longer horizon… • IOs and SUTs • Balance sheet approach to the wealth of nations • Disaggregated information on factors of production • Time use surveys

  11. Thank you谢谢 dbrooks@adb.org