What is Theory?

1. What is Theory?

2. Theory is NOT: • Correlation • Description • Interpretation • Absence of data • Ideology

3. Theory IS: • A general, abstract explanation

4. Theories simplify reality • The world is complex • Theories tell us what to pay attention to

5. Theories have empirical implications • Assume the existence of a real world • Aim to increase understanding, not to accomplish political, moral, or social ends • Have empirical implications • If X, then Y, where X and Y are observables

6. Social theories • Explain social rather than individual outcomes • We are interested in explaining the behavior of social systems rather than of individuals

7. Social theories • Are composed of • Causal relations • Causal mechanisms

8. Causal Relations • The outcome • The thing you are trying to explain • Also called • Dependent variable • Effect

9. Causal Relations, cont’d • The cause • A factor such that change in it is associated with change in the outcome • Also called • Independent variable

10. Causal Relations, cont’d • So, X causes Y if by modifying X, one can affect Y • An explanation includes an assertion of such a causal relation

11. Causal Mechanisms • The link between the cause and the outcome • In other words, the process through which the cause leads to the outcome We will say more about this later

12. How do we know which theory is best? • Empirical evidence • Theories produce empirical predictions about how change in a causal variable will affect an outcome variable • These predictions are called hypotheses

13. Example: Durkheim’s theory of suicide • The level of individualism in a group affects the rate of suicide in the group • Individualism – a cause • The degree to which individual activities are controlled by individuals themselves rather than by others • Suicide rate – an outcome • Some countries/groups have a low rate; others a relatively high one

14. Empirical implications • If Protestants are more individualistic than Catholics • Then Protestants in France will have higher suicide rates than Catholics in France • If unmarried men are more individualistic than married men • Then unmarried men will have a higher rate of suicide than married men

15. Empirical implications, cont’d • To determine whether the predictions are supported by the data, we must pay attention to three things: • Correlation • Causal Order • Spuriousness

16. Correlation • A change in X is associated with a change in outcome Y

17. Causal order • The cause must occur before the effect • It is possible to change the value of the dependent variable by changing the causal variable • In other words, if you change X, Y will change Cause Outcome (x) (Y)

18. Non-spuriousness • To infer causality, all possible spurious causes of Y (the dependent variable) must be ruled out • That is, the researcher must determine that a third variable is not responsible for the observed relation between X and Y

19. Example: The Protestant Ethic • Max Weber noted that the initial geographic distribution of European industrial capitalism seemed correlated with the % of Protestants in a country • Protestantism  industrial capitalism • Possible spurious causes • Perhaps countries with large coal reserves tended to be Protestant • If coal reserves  industrial capitalism, then Protestantism is a spurious relation

20. Example The Protestant Ethic Protestantism Capitalism Coal Reserves

21. Assessing theories • If the theoretical predictions are consistent with what we observe, then we have more confidence in the theory

22. Caveats • Very few ‘classical theories’ live up to these expectations • They do not always explicitly articulate causal relations and causal mechanisms • Not many contemporary ones do, either

23. Theories are imperfect • Theories simplify reality • Theories must omit much, must overemphasize much • Hence, all theories are imperfect

24. How to choose between rival theories? • Ultimate criterion: empirical adequacy • The best theory is the one that is most consistent with observable empirical phenomena