Napier CITY Economic update to January 2010

1. January 2010 Napier CITYEconomic update to January 2010

2. 1. Population • Overall population gain of 0.7%, compared to 0.9% regionally and 3.1% nationally • 200 population gain over the past year • Napier’s population projected to increase further to over 58,000 by Year 2016, compared to the current figure of 57,200 • 65+ population projected to increase by 31%

3. 2. Dwellings/Households Change • Estimated total households/dwellings in the City currently 23,500 • Projected further increase in the range 10%-22% over 2009-2031

4. 3. Economic Activity-GDP • Economic growth fluctuates more at the smaller local economy level • Minus 1.4% growth (decline) in Napier over the year ended September 2009, an improvement on the previous year and better than the national level • This year anticipate gradual move back towards the positive growth area

5. 4. New Commercial Industrial Building • Sharp decline since 2007 • Number of new visitor accommodation buildings has increased a little in more recent years • Stable number of new office/administration buildings over the last two years • Increase in new storage buildings last year • But sharp fall in new industrial buildings

6. 5. Total New Building • Strongest activity over 2005-2007 • Sharp fall since then

7. 6. Local Economic Indicators • Port of Napier-international export trade up 3.3% over the Sept 2009 year and import trade down 38%

8. 7.Local Business Performance • Results of Napier business confidence survey in September 2009 • Approx. half of the 200 firms surveyed reported begin significantly impacted by the major international economic downturn • Local businesses have responded to the downturn by, for example, reducing operating costs, staff changes, increased marketing, new business opportunities, restructuring and improved debt management

9. 8(a) Total Tourism Sector • Relatively small fall in City tourism activity last year • Visitor night figures have been relatively stable since mid 2005 • Napier i-Site results –6.4% fall in visitor numbers for the 2009 calendar year

10. 8(b) Accommodation Based (HB) • Motels presently account for almost half of all visitor-nights spent in the region, compared to 54% in 2005 • Motel annual visitor-nights numbers have fallen 10% since 2006 • Hotel visitor-nights have increased 37% since 2005 and by 39% for backpackers. Holiday park visitor-nights have fallen by 5% • Motels are followed by holiday parks, hotels and backpackers, in order of importance

11. 9. Employment Situation • Comparative unemployment rates in September 2009 were HB region 10% and NZ 6.3%

12. 10. Income Situation • Number of working-age income-tested beneficiaries in December 2009 stood at 5,527, compared to 4,641 in December 2008 • Numbers for other individual benefit categories was: • DPB – 2,009 • Sickness – 1,008 • Invalids – 1,350 • Number of families under pressure • Increased number of people receiving food parcels

13. 11. Changes since September 2009 • Number of people on the unemployment benefit in Napier at the end of December 2009 up 6.7% on the September quarter • Commercial visitor arrivals over Oct/Nov 2009 down 1% on the same period in 2008, with visitor-nights down 6% • Some business closures • CBD business activity since Dec 09 –lot of pre-Christmas sales, more cash spending, strong Boxing Day, supermarkets very positive, lots of people in town, positive impact of cruise ships, high quality independent outlets doing well and January performance still good.

14. 12. Year 2010 Outlook • Continued gradual economic recovery • Positive impacts from the upcoming major summer events programme • Seasonal work opportunities with the upcoming annual horticultural harvesting season • Impacts of the rural production sector-positive production conditions but tight markets situation • Overall low growth environment anticipated for the year ahead