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Meteorology 485

Meteorology 485

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Meteorology 485

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  1. Meteorology 485 Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 16, 2004

  2. Medium Range Guidance • Numerical Models • GFS – NCEP’s Global Forecast System • From 6 to 384 hours; most forecast fields • Resolution changes at 180 hours (T126 to T62) • Twelve member ensemble; 5 +, 5 -, 1 Cntl, 1 Opn • Run four times a day; 00z & 12Z to 384 hrs, 6z & 18z to 180hrs See: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ • CMC – Canadian Meteorological Center • From 12 to 240 hours; all forecast fields • Four different physics packages • Sixteen member ensemble; 4 different IC for each • Run once a day at 00Z to 240 hrs See: http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

  3. Models • GFS CMC

  4. Medium Range Guidance • NOGAPS – U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System • From 6 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) • T159L24 /non-ensembled • Multiple derived products for ocean use • UKMET – United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Forecast Model) • From 12 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) • X=60km, Layers=38 • New Physics Package added in August 2002 • Many derived products for customers

  5. Models • NOGAPS UKMET

  6. Medium Range Guidance • ECMWF – European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts • Run from 6 to 240 hours at 00Z & 12Z • T159L60; equivalent of 40km grid spacing • 50 member ensemble for most fields

  7. Models • ECMWF

  8. Model Output Guidance • KABE • KABE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/11/2004 000 UTC • SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18 CLIMO • FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192| • MX/MN • OPRNL 21| 21 41| 29 41| 18 19| 10 16| 5 21| 9 30| 17 35| • MEAN 20| 20 40| 27 38| 13 18| 7 21| 11 21| 12 27| 15 29| • STDV 0| 0 1| 2 2| 4 3| 5 6| 4 3| 3 5| 3 4| • HI 21| 21 41| 30 42| 18 23| 17 33| 20 28| 19 36| 21 35| • LO 20| 20 39| 23 33| 5 12| 1 16| 5 18| 9 21| 10 25| • TMP 18| 26 35| 30 28| 15 13| 10 16| 14 17| 16 22| 18 24| • DWPT 8| 21 25| 21 11| 2 -3| 3 4| 4 4| 7 11| 11 13| • CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| • P12 • OPRNL 6| 67 18| 3 8| 0 3| 38 51| 3 6| 4 16| 15 21| • MEAN 19| 71 20| 9 3| 3 7| 29 29| 9 10| 18 34| 24 23| • STDV 6| 8 1| 6 2| 2 3| 20 10| 3 2| 5 9| 6 8| • HI 32| 86 23| 26 8| 6 13| 56 51| 14 14| 25 55| 38 42| • LO 6| 57 17| 3 0| 0 3| 0 12| 3 6| 4 16| 15 16| • P24 • OPRNL | 70| 15| 5| 63| 10| 16| 27| • MEAN | 78| 19| 9| 43| 16| 36| 36| • STDV | 9| 4| 3| 15| 3| 10| 4| • HI | 95| 29| 15| 63| 22| 55| 42| • LO | 64| 15| 3| 12| 10| 16| 27|