The oilendgame KS 320.382 Energy and Sustainable Development Prof. Dr. Stefan Schleicher
A short VIDEO for the beginning of our presentation • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulxe1ie-vEY
Global Peak Oil • Oil is the most important fossil resource. • Crude oil is finite! A phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil“ ↓↓↓ Civilization (as we know it) is coming to an end soon
Oil Demand Figure1: Daily oil consumption
Oil Demand • From 1994 to 2006: oil demand grew an average of 1.76 % per year • more than 85 million barrels of oil are needed to meet the daily needs of the globe • oil consumption has increased 25 % over the past decade
OilSupply • “All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.” Prof.William J. Cummings, company spokesman of American multinational oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil (December 2005) • “It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.” Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell (October 2008)
Global Reserves(in Mio Barrel) Source : BP statistical review of world energy, June 2006
Timing of Peak Oil • Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production begins to go down. • Early predictions about an oil peak were made by M. King Hubert who predicted an oil peak would occur in 1996. This was not the case. • Recent researches say: 2006 was the year of global Peak Oil !
Timing of Peak Oil World Oil Production Forecast (Update November 2009)
„Winning the Oil Endgame“ • published by the Rocky Mountain Institute • four ways to reduce petroleum dependence in the United States: • using oil twice more efficiently • replacing petroleum fuels with biofuels • substituting saved natural gas for oil • replacing oil with hydrogen
Résumé worldwide oil production in 2030 ═ worldwide oil production as it was in 1980 → worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil → price will skyrocket → oil dependant economies will crumble → resource wars will explode ►the reserves are distributed unequally in the different geographical zones of the earth, and that means that some countries will experience a shortage much sooner than others.
V I D E O http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or-TyPACK-g