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T7.4 Ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modeling

T7.4 Ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modeling. Enrique Alvarez, Begoña Pérez ( and T7.4 participants) ECOOP Annual Meeting Athens, 13th-14th February 2008. Participants.

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T7.4 Ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modeling

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  1. T7.4 Ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modeling Enrique Alvarez, Begoña Pérez ( and T7.4 participants) ECOOP Annual Meeting Athens, 13th-14th February 2008

  2. Participants • Puertos del Estado, MeteoFrance, MeteoGalicia, CNRS-POC, DMI, RIKZ, IMI (joint in October 2007), POL (recently invited) Objective • To improve the quality, reliability and accessibility of storm surge at the European level by means of multi-model and super-ensemble forecasting. Creation of the ENSURF system: applications that provide a improved storm surge forecast by ensemble of existing systems

  3. Meetings • WP7 meeting at IFREMER, Paris, 26th-27th March 2007 • Task 7.4 meeting at Puertos del Estado, Madrid, 15th-16th October 2007

  4. Detailed plan of work Two work lines: • Operational work: basically focused on the implementation of ENSURF for the TOP period. Ensurf will be built based on existing Matroos aplication • Development/research work: test of the use of ensemble predictions, including error assessment

  5. BMA results: weights and rmse, 24 h forecast Operational work: Matroos application • Example of visualization of different forecasts:

  6. 7.4.2 System development • Operational Work: two different approaches for the North and South of Europe, due to the different degree of development • North Sea (NOOS area): Matroos software already in operation in the NOOS area, including the application of the BMA technique, and exchange of data from different models. This will be the basis for the North component of ENSURF. • South (Ibiroos and Mediterranean): not multi-model approach available in the area. A new system similar to the one existing in the NOOS area with BMA technique for probabilistic forecast will be implemented.

  7. 7.4.2 System development • List of common sea level stations: • Selected based on available information from SEPRISE and the NEAMTWS system (North East Atlantic and MediterraneanTsunami Warning System) about real time sea level stations

  8. ESEOAT-ESEOCAN: Polcoms baroclinic (Puertos del Estado) Nivmar system: Hamsom barotropic (Puertos del Estado) 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean: Existing systems in the region:

  9. MeteoFrance: barotropic MeteoGalicia: Mohid baroclinic Figure 1: Western Mediterranean domain Figure 2: North Sea, Channel and Atlantic coast domain 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean Existing systems in the region:

  10. 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean Existing systems in the region: MI storm surge forecasting system: ROMS baroclinic

  11. 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean Work status: • Matroos software was implemented in Puertos del Estado by RIKZ in October 2007 • At this moment, output of sea level forecasts of Nivmar and ESEOAT (Puertos del Estado) and MeteoGalicia operational systems are already included in the system in Puertos del Estado • Total sea level is compared between models and with already available sea level data from the tide gauges

  12. 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean. Matroos software in operation for the Ibiroos area

  13. 7.4.2 System development • Implementation for Ibiroos and Mediterranean. Immediate work: • Inclusion of MeteoFrance and MI models • Homogeneous tidal analysis of station and model outputs to obtain coherent tidal constants • 2D maps inclusion in Matroos (Netcdf) • BMA technique to operational

  14. 7.4.2 System development • Status of work in the NOOS area: Main conclusions from last NOOS meeting: • Station list revised • Three new forecast and ftp boxes will be opened : SMHI (Sweden), MI (Ireland) and IFREMER (France) • MetNo is installing ENSURF • Discussion is open on who will perform the coherent tide computation

  15. 7.4.2 System development • I+D component of the work. Planning: (not started) • MOON area: sensitivity study of a multi-model ensemble with three different deterministic forecast (INM, MF and ECMWF). Circulation models: T-UGOm, Hamsom, MF. • NOOS area: provision of DMI atmospheric ensemble to Deltares (Matroos application in the North Sea) • IBI area: run of all ensembles of MeteoGalicia and MF with their respective model for the same period. Test and implementation of software of validation for ensemble and statistical forecasts

  16. Conclusions • There is not delay on the development of Task 7.4 • Implementation of an operational multi-model approach for the South of Europe has already started • The existing activities in the NOOS area will be integrated with several improvements in ENSURF • Research work has being designed to test concepts for future ENSURF upgrade

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