Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Global Climate Change: How Did We Get Here? What Do We Do Now? Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu “Focus the Nation” Forum Iowa State University 31 January 2008

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

IPCC Third Assessment Report

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm (2100) January 2008 385 ppm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

What Do We Do Now? • Serve as a model for energy efficiency and minimal impact on global climate change • President Geoffroy’s Advisory Committee • Conduct research on both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change

What Do We Do Now?President's Advisory Committee on Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change • Conduct a full-scale university energy audit that includes a review of ISU's electrical, heating, cooling and transportation systems. The audit will provide a baseline for measuring progress. • Develop plans for reducing energy use in each of the audited areas. • Develop energy conservation and climate change guidelines for all new construction and major renovation projects. • Ensure that students are well-informed about alternate energy sources, energy conservation and global climate change issues.

Chris Ahoy Floyd Barwig Joseph Fuller Devin Hartman Tahira Hira Elizabeth Hoffman George Kraus Mark Kushner Warren Madden Jeri Neal Brian Phillips Colleen Rogers Pat Schnable Kate Schwennsen Eugene Takle What Do We Do Now?President's Advisory Committee on Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change

What Do We Do Now?ISU’s Research Role • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) • Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to NOAA) • ISU Climate Science Initiative

Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the Hadley Centre global climate model

information from global model results information from global model results information from global model results information from global model results Regional climate model

Crop & horticulture production Soil erosion Conservation practices Water supplies Streamflow Water quality Beef and pork daily gains Livestock breeding success Milk and egg production Crop and livestock pests and pathogens Agricultural tile drainage systems Natural ecosystem species distributions Human health Building designs Recreation opportunities River navigation Roads and bridges How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional Climate Change Affect… Who will provide authoritative information? How will it be delivered?

Proposed newMidwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) • Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest • Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models interactive web-based decision-making tools, • Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate forecast products to maximize economic gains • Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback through the county level extension service network

ISU Climate Science Initiative • Launched by Vice President Brighton • Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken leadership, but broad campus research participation will be emphasized • Build on research strengths in regional climate modeling, agriculture, water, landscapes, engineering

Summary • Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years • Humans have contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years • Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century • Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years • President Geoffroy has a goal to make ISU a model of energy conservation • Iowa State has the capacity to build on its strengths and provide authoritative climate information for decision-makers

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC