Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

1. Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs Howard J. Singer NOAA Space Environment Center NSF Workshop on Small Satellite Missions for Space Weather and Atmospheric Research George Mason University, Arlington, VA May 17, 2007

2. Outline Space Weather Satellite Observing Capabilities in Operations Space Weather Observing Needs NOAA’s Observing System Architecture Conclusions Acknowledgments: Baker, Doggett, Murtagh, O’Connor, Onsager, Tayler, Viereck Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

3. Monitor, Measure and Specify:Data for Today’s Space Weather • Ground Sites • Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) • Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) • SOON Sites (USAF) • RSTN (USAF) • Telescopes and Magnetographs • Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) • GPS (CORS) • SOHO (ESA/NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona (CMEs) ESA/NASASOHO • ACE (NASA) • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles • Vector Magnetic field L1 NASAACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES • GOES (NOAA) • Energetic Particles • Magnetic Field • Solar X-ray Flux • Solar EUV Flux • Solar X-Ray Images • POES (NOAA) • High Energy Particles • Total Energy Deposition • Solar UV Flux Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

4. Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data • By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SEC can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to provide data for operational use. • ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data • IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data. • Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition panels, SEC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs that include utility to space weather forecasting and specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …) • STEREO:Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by operations for forecasts and warnings of impending geomagnetic storms. Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

5. Uses of Space Weather Data Estimated Planetary K index Based on Ground Magnetometers • Indicators of State of the System • Input to Drive Models • Data Assimilation • Validate Model Output • Instrument Calibration/Validation • Research Magnetospheric Specification Model Input parameters: Kp, Dst, Vpc, PC pattern, equatorward boundary auroral precipitation, solar wind velocity and density, IMF, DMSP precip flux, sum Kp Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

6. Uses of Space Weather Data:Magnetometer Data Needed for Space Weather Model Validation The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations. CISM: Huang et al. U. Mich. Gombosi et al. U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.) Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the GOES magnetic field data for validating their models. UNH: Raeder et al. Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

7. Major Space Weather Customer Needs • Communication outage probability • Solar energetic particle probability • Flare probability • Ground dB/dt probability • Human radiation exposure probability • Satellite radiation exposure probability • Ionospheric Total Electron Content probability Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

8. NOAA Space Environment CenterHighest Priority Operational Needs • Solar energetic particle event forecasts, including start time, end time, peak flux, time of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability of occurrence • Solar wind data from L1 • Solar coronagraph data • Energetic electron flux prediction for International Space Station • Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecasts • Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation (real-time and future) • Geomagnetic indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecasts • Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation • Background solar wind prediction 2006; not priority ordered Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

9. NOAA Space Environment CenterHigh Priority Operational Needs • Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based on CME observations, coronal hole observations, solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM observations • Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic tracking an ICME) • Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast • Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices • Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products • Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for all forecast quantities (e.g., climatological forecasts of flares, geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and F10.7—similar to NWS Model Output Statistics) • Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for GOES-13 SXI, STEREO, SDO) • Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts • Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts • Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data • EUV index 2006; not priority ordered Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

10. Customer Growth: Demand New Products • Increasing customer needs for space weather information drove several new products • The demand for space weather products is growing even as we approach solar minimum • The NOAA Space Environment Center website is serving more than 250,000 unique customers per month from 150 countries…in solar minimum! Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

11. Customer Uses Economic Impacts of Space Weather • Airborne Survey Data Collection: $50,000 per day • Marine Seismic Data Collection: $80,000-$200,000 per day • Offshore Oil Rig Operation: $300,000-$1,000,000 per day Airlines and Space Weather Global Positioning System Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR Next 6 Years: Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Next 12 Years: 1.8 million polar route passengers by 2019 GPS Global Production Value—expected growth: 2003 - $13 billion 2008 - $21.5 billion 2017 - $757 billion Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005 Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

12. Observation Requirements Process - Past OTHERS OTHERS NWS NWS POES GOES Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Space Space Space Space C3 C3 LAUNCH LAUNCH Level Process Characteristics • Limited NOAA-wide requirements collection • Requirements are system-, not agency-, based • One Level of Trade Studies • No formal translation of requirements to product processing, distribution, archive and assimilation Agency System Segment Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

13. Observation Requirements Process - New Media and Commercial Other Federal Agencies NASA DHS DoD Meteorological Centers Research and Academic International Partners USDA EPA DOC/NOAA Ecosystems Climate Weather and Water Commerce and Transportation Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies ? ? ? ? ? Platform Coverage Sensor Suite Platform Coverage Sensor Suite Platform Coverage Sensor Suite Platform Coverage Sensor Suite Platform Location Coverage Sensor Suite System N System B System A System L System J System G System H System D System C System E Consolidated Observation Requirements Architecture Development International Systems Other Federal Systems Commercial Systems Trade Studies Interagency Requirements Collection Process SPACE OCEAN LAND AIR External Requirements Collection Process System K System F System I System M Federal Program/System Development Phase System O Commercial Program/System Development/Deployment and Operations Phase Program/System Deployment and Operations Phase Data Collection Product Generation Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs User Assimilation Data Distribution Archive

14. NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA) Consolidated Observation Requirements List (CORL)Example SpWx Priority 1 Observation Requirements Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

15. Conclusions • Described current space weather observations used in operations • Identified space weather needs that might be addressed with small satellite missions • Illustrated space weather customer growth that demonstrates a need for new observations and products • Highligted the value of selecting an NSF small satellite project that supports both research and operations • Defined the NOAA observation process that is set up to encourage working with partners and selecting the best platform to meet an observational need Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

16. Contact Information: • Howard J. Singer, Chief • Science and Technology Infusion Branch • NOAA Space Environment Center • 325 Broadway • Boulder, CO 80305 • 303 497 6959 • howard.singer@noaa.gov Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs