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Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution

Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution. Amr M. Mohammed 1 Amer Shalaby 2 Eric J Miller 3 1: Morrison Hershfield Ltd. 2,3: Dept . of Civil Engineering , University of Toronto

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Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution

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  1. Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution Amr M. Mohammed1 Amer Shalaby2 Eric J Miller 3 1: Morrison Hershfield Ltd. 2,3: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto Paper presented at the 2011 GIS in Public Transportation Conference URISA – The Association of GIS Professionals September 15th2011 P-TRANE

  2. Overview • Introduction • Bus Network Evolution Model • Phase I: Mississauga Transit • Types of Changes • Phase II: P-TRANE • Results • Conclusions and Recommendations • Current Developments (City of Ottawa: Hospital Link, LRT) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  3. Introduction • Bus operators/agencies Constantly Adjust networks (changes) • Behaviour • Response to: Dynamic of Ridership Changes & Budget Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  4. Introduction • Model captures changes over time: • Predict network shape & functionality • Future Time steps • Aid for developers, Transit&urban planners • Component in urban-transportation demand simulation frameworks (e.g. ILUTE) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  5. Introduction P-TRANE “Changes triggered by socioeconomic & Urban factors (Land-Use) & dictated/Guided by service standards practices” Two-phase • Empirical Study (Multiple regression & simultaneous equations) – USING ArcGIS • Service Standards (P-TRANE) - USING ArcGIS Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  6. Introduction Fits into ILUTE? • Transportation Planning Models • Bring transportation-related components of urban systems into integrated modelling framework Integration Urban Form Transportation Model 2-way interactions Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  7. Introduction: ILUTE Integrated Land-Use, Transportation, Environment (Salvini and Miller, 2005) Household/Person decisions Activity of Objects (Persons/hh/firms/job market) Exogenous Travel Demand Travel Times Emissions Energy Use Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  8. Bus Evolution Model Phase I: Empirical analysis • Supply historical trends • Macroscopic • Mutual effect between Demand & Supply • ‘Demand and supply are recursive&simultaneous’ (e.g. Taylor & Miller 2003, Peng 1997) • Phase II: P-TRANE • GIS of bus network growth • Microscopic (bus line /period/branch detail) • Service Standards Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  9. Phase I:Mississauga Transit • PHASE I • Analysing historical trends of transit supply • Purpose: Understand causes and triggers of growth • Statistical and econometric models Demand? Population? Income? Demographics? Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  10. Phase I:Mississauga Transit Mississauga Connectivity Subway Stations (Western Terminus) Kipling/Islington Busy Downtown Toronto – Business Centre Explosive Growth Employment Centre City of Mississauga Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  11. Phase I: Mississauga Transit • Demographic and socioeconomic variables • ArcGIS (1/4 mile buffer zone) (Local & City wide) • Multiple time steps (1986-2001) (Census Tract + TTS zones data) • Multiple Regression & simultaneous equations • Transit supply → bus frequencies (Dependant variable) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

  12. Phase I: Results Cross-sectional models using Multiple Regression

  13. Phase I: Results Simultaneous Regression Equations

  14. Phase I: Results • Simultaneous Regression Equations: Model Testing • 2001 data(Observed vs. Estimated) • 2-tailed matched pairs, difference not significantly different from zero • Previous model show strong predictive power

  15. Transit Evolution Model P - T R A N E Phase II “Prediction Model of Transit Network Evolution” Previously PREMOTRANE Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  16. Phase II: Types of Changes Types of Bus Network Changes P - T R A N E 1- Capital-intensive changes • Political – Large Scale (subway, LRT) – Effects 2 • Exogenous 2- Periodic Service changes • Regular, (medium to small) • Reaction to Changing demands • Budget is exogenous • Extra subsidy? = No new buses into P-TRANE • Modeled in P-TRANE New bus route Route removal Frequency change Re-routing & Extending Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  17. Phase II: Types of Changes P - T R A N E 2- Medium to Small Periodic Service changes Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

  18. Phase II: TTC Service Standards • Service Standards: • Guidelines • Service quality & financial performance • Proposals for new service • Rules into P-TRANE • Expert Systems (KB: Service Standards • Rules + Priority Rules) • Frequency, Financial Performance P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  19. Phase II: P-TRANE , Minor changes: Bus Crowding Rule P - T R A N E Financial Performance rule

  20. Phase II: PREMOTRANE Implementation: Minor Changes P R E M O T R A N E

  21. Implementation: Minor Changes Phase II: P-TRANE P - T R A N E

  22. Phase II: P-TRANE,GISMedium ChangesRules P - T R A N E • P-TRANE,GIS : build new routes

  23. Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes P R E M O T R A N E

  24. Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes P - T R A N E

  25. Modelling Procedure (Proposals) new line/extension/adjustment in routing P R E M O T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

  26. Modelling Procedure (Proposals) P - T R A N E Line Builder in P-TRANE Apply/add to updated network

  27. Transit Evolution Model P-TRANE & ILUTE exchange demand,land-use and supply data for future time steps and are simulated together. P - T R A N E Demand (Ridership) ILUTE Land-use P-TRANE Socio-Economic Data Transit Network (Supply) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  28. Phase II: P-TRANERelationship with ILUTE P - T R A N E

  29. Results (Minor Changes) • Frequencies and Financial performance • Test 2005 network (TTC) • Output: A number of lists of changes in frequency&financially poor lines for 2006. • 97% of actual # changes modelled by P-TRANE actually changed P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

  30. Results Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations - 2002 • TTC made 11 changes - 3 new lines • Don Mills to Scarborough town Centre • Finch East to Don Mills • Victoria Park via consumers road (To Don Mills station) • P-TRANE output: • Don Mills to Ellsemere station (one station south of actual) • Bayview to Finch (but through local streets) • Bessarion to Finch (through local streets) • Spatial comparison • Functionality / Spatially equivalent P - T R A N E

  31. Results Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations – 2002 P - T R A N E Actual → ← P-TRANE

  32. Conclusions P-TRANE • For the first time, Transit network evolution • Two phase project (empirical & DSS) • P-TRANE – a (GIS) framework • Simulates changes spatially and temporally • Predictive model, describes service standards • Component in ILUTE, • GIS, User-friendly, Promising Results P - T R A N E

  33. Conclusions P-TRANE • DSS For Transit Agencies (e.g. TTC, OCTranspo) • Test future policies, alternatives, standards • Simulates Periodic Changes of Service/Feeder Bus Routes Prior to (Capital Intensive) Projects • E.g., New LRT BRT, Subway Stations, P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  34. Current Developments • Ottawa Transit: (LRT & Hospital Link BRT) Effects on feeder bus network; • Testing, validating and updating; • Next Steps • Effects of Labour Unions • Budget Model P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

  35. Thank you

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