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Strategic Discussion on Coupled Prediction for Ocean, Wave, and Sea-Ice Interactions

This document outlines key discussions from the SMRCP-TT meeting focused on advancing coupled prediction in Earth System Modeling. It addresses current challenges and scientific questions needing resolution, particularly regarding atmospheric implications of oceanic phenomena including waves and sea ice. The agenda includes presentations on progress, strategic planning, and updates on publications, alongside considerations for data assimilation and observational requirements. The goal is to improve our understanding of interfacial flux phenomena and enhance prediction capabilities across various scales.

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Strategic Discussion on Coupled Prediction for Ocean, Wave, and Sea-Ice Interactions

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Presentation Transcript

  1. SMRCP-TT discussion • Agenda • Presentations on progress • Publication update • Strategic plan discussion

  2. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Is there enough evidence for impact? • Atmospheric (growing evidence) • Ocean (limited) (sonic layer, surface currents, coastal upwelling/surge?) • Waves ? • Sea-ice (growing evidence) • Can we measure/trust the impact studies with present systems • What deficiencies need to be addressed before we can quantify impact • Modelling, diagnosing biases and optimising model schemes • DA • Interfacial fluxes • Observing system • Do we need to promote more controlled experiments?

  3. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Observational requirements • Getting more from existing platforms? • New requirements • New experiments • Focus • Demonstrate impact of the ocean/wave/sea-ice on atmospheric phenomena • general coupled circulation impact • Regional – polar regions (YOPP), western boundary current regions • Phenomena – High impact weather (Hurricanes/TC’s/East coast lows) • Coupled covariance Data Assimilation • Can we diagnose the impact of coupled DA with current techniques • Coupled ensembles provide BEC’s • Can we already use NWP increments and Ocean DA increment fields to trace error relationships? • Progress with variational methods?

  4. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Multi-temporal phenomena • Not just a coupled problem? • Adaptive modelling techniques have been developed for the spatial problem. However, the time step also need to be adaptive? Has this been achieved? Need to use explicit approaches to parallelise • Are adaptive DA techniques required? Can we develop more general adaptive DA techniques that perform DA at higher sampling rates localised to the temporal scales of the phenomena? Multi-grid DA? • Coupled modelling • Is bias more or less of an issue in coupled mode? • Model drift • Is the coupled boundary layer problem being addressed for our needs? • Coupled predictability • Bred vector studies • Ensemble studies

  5. SMRCP-TT discussion National plans Capability current and planned Major programs/initiatives US Europe Canada Japan China Australia

  6. SMRCP-TT discussion • SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT(WG) • (Complementary functional group or application group) • Scope • Coupled prediction in an Earth Systems Modeling approach but with a focus on the the role of oceans (e.g., ocean-ice-wave interactions). • Coupled DA is an essential element to CP • Coordination with DA-TT to avoid overlap

  7. SMRCP-TT discussion • Major priorities • Facilitate exchange of national and international programs of scientific progress • Collation of quantified impact of earth system coupling for ocean-wave-sea-ice-atmosphere and interfacial flux phenomena • Target common issues/challenges for projects/tasks • YOPP => Greg to identify the activities • Representation of SST (vertical resolution/skin model) and modelling of the diurnal cycle => interfacial fluxes => Matt/Chris • Upper ocean boundary layer process (e.g., • Representation of momentum across the coupled interface => Gary • Representation of surface salinity, buoyancy/stability of upper layer, coupled feedback => Avichal • Stokes-Coriolis, Langmuir => Hendrik • Extend GOV definition to ocean-wave-sea-ice CP’s –

  8. SMRCP-TT discussion • SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT • (Complementary functional group or application group) • Outcomes • Improve prediction of ocean-wave-sea-ice phenomena • Extend GOV systems to GOV-CP • Initiatives/projects • 2nd Joint workshop Modelling/DA/Obs • One CP modelling workshop • One CP DA/Obs workshop • One WGNE meeting • Specific projects or just science exchange • YOPP • Leadership • Volunteers • Patrons/Champions • NOAA

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