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SMRCP-TT discussion

SMRCP-TT discussion

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SMRCP-TT discussion

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Presentation Transcript

  1. SMRCP-TT discussion • Agenda • Presentations on progress • Publication update • Strategic plan discussion

  2. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Is there enough evidence for impact? • Atmospheric (growing evidence) • Ocean (limited) (sonic layer, surface currents, coastal upwelling/surge?) • Waves ? • Sea-ice (growing evidence) • Can we measure/trust the impact studies with present systems • What deficiencies need to be addressed before we can quantify impact • Modelling, diagnosing biases and optimising model schemes • DA • Interfacial fluxes • Observing system • Do we need to promote more controlled experiments?

  3. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Observational requirements • Getting more from existing platforms? • New requirements • New experiments • Focus • Demonstrate impact of the ocean/wave/sea-ice on atmospheric phenomena • general coupled circulation impact • Regional – polar regions (YOPP), western boundary current regions • Phenomena – High impact weather (Hurricanes/TC’s/East coast lows) • Coupled covariance Data Assimilation • Can we diagnose the impact of coupled DA with current techniques • Coupled ensembles provide BEC’s • Can we already use NWP increments and Ocean DA increment fields to trace error relationships? • Progress with variational methods?

  4. SMRCP-TT discussion • Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction • Multi-temporal phenomena • Not just a coupled problem? • Adaptive modelling techniques have been developed for the spatial problem. However, the time step also need to be adaptive? Has this been achieved? Need to use explicit approaches to parallelise • Are adaptive DA techniques required? Can we develop more general adaptive DA techniques that perform DA at higher sampling rates localised to the temporal scales of the phenomena? Multi-grid DA? • Coupled modelling • Is bias more or less of an issue in coupled mode? • Model drift • Is the coupled boundary layer problem being addressed for our needs? • Coupled predictability • Bred vector studies • Ensemble studies

  5. SMRCP-TT discussion National plans Capability current and planned Major programs/initiatives US Europe Canada Japan China Australia

  6. SMRCP-TT discussion • SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT(WG) • (Complementary functional group or application group) • Scope • Coupled prediction in an Earth Systems Modeling approach but with a focus on the the role of oceans (e.g., ocean-ice-wave interactions). • Coupled DA is an essential element to CP • Coordination with DA-TT to avoid overlap

  7. SMRCP-TT discussion • Major priorities • Facilitate exchange of national and international programs of scientific progress • Collation of quantified impact of earth system coupling for ocean-wave-sea-ice-atmosphere and interfacial flux phenomena • Target common issues/challenges for projects/tasks • YOPP => Greg to identify the activities • Representation of SST (vertical resolution/skin model) and modelling of the diurnal cycle => interfacial fluxes => Matt/Chris • Upper ocean boundary layer process (e.g., • Representation of momentum across the coupled interface => Gary • Representation of surface salinity, buoyancy/stability of upper layer, coupled feedback => Avichal • Stokes-Coriolis, Langmuir => Hendrik • Extend GOV definition to ocean-wave-sea-ice CP’s –

  8. SMRCP-TT discussion • SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT • (Complementary functional group or application group) • Outcomes • Improve prediction of ocean-wave-sea-ice phenomena • Extend GOV systems to GOV-CP • Initiatives/projects • 2nd Joint workshop Modelling/DA/Obs • One CP modelling workshop • One CP DA/Obs workshop • One WGNE meeting • Specific projects or just science exchange • YOPP • Leadership • Volunteers • Patrons/Champions • NOAA