Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

1. Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

2. How will air quality change in the future?IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—Business as usual

3. Global to Regional Scale Modeling • IPCC - A2 scenario“Business as usual” • Simulate two 10-year periods • Current 1990 – 1999 • Future 2045 – 2054 • Sensitivity Analyses • Emissions, meteorology & BC effects • Land management scenarios

4. PNW: 15 Obs. Sites NMW: 20 Obs. Sites Current Climate Simulation: Comparison to Observations CMAQ Simulations for current decade at 36 km grid scale vs EPA AIRS monitoring data

5. Future vs Current Conditions: July Temperatures Daily Average Maximum current change

6. Seattle Daytime Meteorology

7. Chemical Boundary Condition Changes west up to 500 mb north

8. anthropogenic July Emission Changes: NOX current change

9. biogenic July Emission Changes: VOC current change

10. Sensitivity Analysis • Sensitivity simulations for five July’s: • current met, current BC’s, current emissions: CUR • future met, future BC’s, future emissions: FUT • future met, current BC’s, current emissions: MET • current met, future BC’s, current emissions: BC • current met, current BC’s, future emissions: EMIS

11. FUT-CUR (10.4 ppbv) EMIS-CUR (4.2 ppbv) CUR (70.1 ppbv) BC-CUR (6.6 ppbv) MET-CUR (1.4 ppbv) Results: O3 95th percentile

12. FUT-CUR: 257% / 69% EMIS-CUR: 72% / 27% # of U.S. grid hours/day where 8-hr O3 > 80 ppbv # of U.S. grids with at least one grid hour where 8-hr O3 > 80 ppbv CUR: 1435 / 1726 BC-CUR: 113% / 54% MET-CUR: 24% / 10% Results: 80 ppbv exceedences

13. PNW 8-hr Average O3 Distributions Seattle Portland Boise

14. FUT-CUR: +5.7 EMIS-CUR: +10.0 CUR: 20.7 μg m-3 BC-CUR: +0.1 MET-CUR: -2.9 Results: 1-hr PM2.5 95th percentile

15. FUT-CUR: 400% / 64% EMIS-CUR: 1117% / 163% CUR: 266 / 1107 BC-CUR: 3% / 0% MET-CUR: -83% / -71% Results: 24-hr PM2.5 35 μg/m3 exceedences

16. Results: Daily Maximum 24-hr PM2.5

17. Land Management Scenario: Widespread Use of Tree Plantations July Isoprene Emission Capacity (30 oC) Future Current Future with Plantations

18. Changes in 8-hr ozone concentrations for enhanced tree plantations in the future

19. Summary • Jump to the Future: • O3 increases of 5 to 10 ppbv • significant increases in occurrences above 80 ppbv • PM2.5 significant increases--5.7 ug/m3 above 20 ug/m3 currently • Large increase in number of PM2.5 exceedences of new 24 hr standard • Sensitivity Analyses: • future O3 changes mainly due to changes in chemical BC and US anthropogenic emissions • Increases in BVOC emissions due to climate change are offset by reduction in forested areas • Enhanced plantation scenario for carbon sequestration could have significant AQ impact • Next Steps • Analyses of PNW 12 km decade simulations • Further sensitivity analyses • New STAR grant focused on uncertainty and ensemble simulations • RGI Deposition Study • analysis of 12 km current/future decade simulations for N, S, O3 deposition • Analysis of AIRPACT-3 long term 2004 evaluation run for N, S, O3, and Hg deposition

20. Collaborators & Support • Collaborating research groups • UW: Clifford Mass and Eric Salathe • NCAR: Alex Guenther and Christine Wiedinmyer • USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin • USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill • Funding sources • US EPA STAR grant (RD830962010)