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Peak Oil and the declining supply of fossil fuels

Peak Oil and the declining supply of fossil fuels. Biomass & Bioenergy Conference 2008 27 th -29 th of February, Estonian Fair Center, Tallinn. Mikael Höök, PhD Student, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University.

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Peak Oil and the declining supply of fossil fuels

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  1. Peak Oil and the declining supply of fossil fuels • Biomass & Bioenergy Conference 2008 • 27th-29th of February, Estonian Fair Center, Tallinn Mikael Höök, PhD Student, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University

  2. Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group (UHDSG)now renamed to:Global Energy Systems Group • Research areas: • Resource Physics • Energy systems • Energy and technology in the society

  3. Creation of fossil fuels • Oil is formed from marine sediments, primarily zooplankton, algae and similar • Oil can be found outside old river deltas, shallow seas and such.

  4. The global oil regions Source: USGS

  5. Global oil distribution • 1. Saudi-Arabia 22.0 % • 2. Iran 11.4 % • 3. Iraq 9,5 % • 4. Kuwait 8.4 % • 5. U. Arab. Em. 8.1 % • 6. Russia 6.6 % • 7. Venezuela 6.6 % • 8. Libya 3.4% • 8. Kazakhstan 3.3 % • 9. Norway 1.6 % All the world oil reserves are concentrated to the Middle East … 75 % of all remaining oil is located in Middle East or Africa

  6. Norway official numbers 2006 Correction in 2007

  7. The inconvenient truth about oil Source: Robelius – Giant Oil Fields

  8. New oilfields are needed!

  9. Peak Oil is coming • The peak in oil discoveries occurred in 1960s. Since 1980s the world have been consuming more oil than annually discovered for every year • In total over 50 countries have passed peak oil and are now producing physically less than they did before • Virtually all future production increases must come from OPEC, since the capacity and reserves of outside OPEC is very limited

  10. King Abdullah of Saudi-Arabia • “The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must get used to a different lifestyle.” • 15 Aug, 2007

  11. Strong voices agree… • “Conceptually the battle is over, the peakists have won.” • ASPO-6, Ireland 2007-09-17 Dr. James Schlesinger, USA Former CIA-chief Former Minister of Defence Former Minister of Energy

  12. UHDSG:s peak oil modell

  13. Global gas distribution • 1. Russia 26.3 % • 2. Iran 15.5 % • 3. Qatar 14,0 % • 4. Saudi-Arabia 3.9 % • 5. USA 3.3 % • 6. U. Arab. Em. 3.3 % • 7. Nigeria 2.9 % • 8. Kazakhstan 1.7% • 8. Iraq 1.9 % • 9. Norway 1.6 % Just 3 countries have the vast majority of the worlds gas reserves. … All of them in “unpleasant regimes” from a Western perspective

  14. The Heart of Europe90% of all Russian production lies here(~20% of the world production) The Heart of Europe

  15. Heart problems…

  16. Yamal – the solution? • Yamal = ”End of the World” in local tribe language • Here lies the last undeveloped gas reserves that can sustain Russian gas production Winter time Summer time

  17. Mr Putin & Russian export • Russia has a vast surplus of energy • Export creates a huge cash flow in the Russian state treasury • The hunt for new export possibilities

  18. Discovery peak

  19. Conclusions • Peak oil is only governed by geology • We cannot produce more than we have discovered!!! • The peak in discoveries must result in a production peak. It is only a matter of time • Natural gas follows the same behaviour as oil and a peak gas will occur • Both of them are imminent problems that will greatly affect economy, society and politics!

  20. Thanks for your attention!!! More material and details is available from our homepage: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/ http://www.peakoil.net

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