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Crop Outlook

Crop Outlook. Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers Convention Okoboji, Iowa. Historical Corn Prices. Source: CBOT. Historical Soybean Prices. Source: CBOT. Factors to Follow.

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Crop Outlook

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  1. Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers Convention Okoboji, Iowa

  2. Historical Corn Prices Source: CBOT

  3. Historical Soybean Prices Source: CBOT

  4. Factors to Follow Crop progress Macroeconomic conditions Energy prices/Biofuel development Export picture/Dollar movements Livestock adjustments South American policies and acreage response

  5. Crop Progress Source: USDA, Crop Progress report, July 2008

  6. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA, WASDE report, July 2008

  7. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA, WASDE report, July 2008

  8. Corn Futures Prices Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008

  9. Soybean Futures Prices Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008

  10. South American Corn Area Source: USDA

  11. South American Soybean Area Source: USDA

  12. Exchange Rate Ratios Since 2007 Source: USDA, ERS

  13. Exchange Rate Futures Ratios Source: CME, 7/15/2008

  14. Historical Crude Oil Prices Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

  15. Crude Oil Futures Prices Source: NYMEX, 7/15/2008

  16. Liquid Fuel Usage Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard Source: Renewable Fuels Association

  18. Ethanol Production Source: Renewable Fuels Association

  19. Historical Ethanol Gross Margins

  20. Projected Ethanol Gross Margins

  21. Ethanol vs. Gasoline Source: CBOT and NYMEX, 7/15/2008

  22. Biodiesel Sales Source: National Biodiesel Board

  23. Iowa Price Ratios Since 2007 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service

  24. Iowa Price Ratios for 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service

  25. Soybean Oil Futures Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008

  26. Ending Thoughts Macroeconomic conditions and energy prices are key factors for US agriculture Tight stock situation combined with crop/weather concerns makes for an active market Watch demand as livestock and biofuel producers react to price movements Export outlook tied to dollar movements and South American policy shifts

  27. Thanks for your time!Any questions?

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