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Crop Outlook

Crop Outlook. Beginning Farmer Network Meeting Ames, Iowa Oct. 4, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. 1,708. 1,708. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA-NASS.

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Crop Outlook

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  1. Crop Outlook Beginning Farmer Network Meeting Ames, Iowa Oct. 4, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 1,708 1,708 Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. La Niña Winter

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Historical Export Levels Week 4 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  16. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  17. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $4.40-4.50 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

  18. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are north of $10 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  19. This Year

  20. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will demand be able to keep pace with supply? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $4.40, Soy $9.90 Futures: Corn $4.50, Soy $10.22 • 2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.43, Soy $10.03

  21. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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