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Water Supply Forecasts

Current ?Official Forecasts". Methodologies currently in use for ?Official Forecasts" are statistical: Multiple Linear Regression Principle Component AnalysisMonthly, Seasonal Volume, Residual VolumeEarly Season forecasts (Nov 1, Dec 1)Associated forecast errors (cross-validation standard er

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Water Supply Forecasts

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    1. Water Supply Forecasts Nancy Stephan Bonneville Power Administration RMJOC Climate Change Data Set Workshop June 9, 2009

    2. Current “Official Forecasts” Methodologies currently in use for “Official Forecasts” are statistical: Multiple Linear Regression Principle Component Analysis Monthly, Seasonal Volume, Residual Volume Early Season forecasts (Nov 1, Dec 1) Associated forecast errors (cross-validation standard error)

    3. Predictors used to make Water Supply Forecasts Fall/Winter precipitation Snowpack (SWE) Spring precipitation Antecedent runoff Temperature (used in BCH forecast) Climate Indices: Southern Oscillation Index Multivariate ENSO Index

    4. Water Supply Forecasts

    6. What are the volumes used for? To-date – July: Calculate Treaty projects power draft rights (VECC) April – Aug (Jul): Flood Control Determine Refill Curves Bi-Op, Fish operations May – Jul (Sep): Refill Curve for HGH

    7. Forecast Errors The Dalles: January – July = 104 maf Jan1 – SE 16.6 maf (95% confidence 27.3 maf) Feb1 – SE 12.4 maf (95% confidence 20.1 maf) Mar1 – SE 9.4 maf (95% confidence 15.5 maf) Apr1 – SE 7.1 maf (95% confidence 11.7 maf)

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