What causes population growth and decline?

1. What causes population growth and decline? Growth • we have discussed how a lack of wealth leads to population increase due to… • Lack of education (women have babies younger and there is little family planning such as birth control, abortion, and use of condoms). • Rural farmers use children as workers on their farms and as a social security net for when they get old. • Lack of professional opportunities for women mean that they get married and have children younger.

2. Population Decline can be caused by… • Increase in wealth of a country • People get married later while they establish their professional career • Urbanization/ cost of raising a family increase • Epidemics that kill many people (ex. AIDS in Africa) • Social dislocation/issues give rise to drug and alcohol use, lower health standards, and economic problems lead to shorter life expectancies and lower birth rates.

3. The Demographic Transition Demographic transition simply refers to the fact that a country’s population growth does not remain the same, and that over time it changes. The Demographic Transition Model describes how over time, a country’s population goes through stages of transition. There are four stages.

4. 1st Stage: Low Growth • This stage is characterized by both high crude and death rates. This results in no population growth. • No country is currently in this stage, which is typical of hunter/gatherer societies where food was unreliable and war and disease took its toll on populations.

5. 2nd Stage: High Growth • This stage is the result of a decrease in the crude death rate (CDR) brought on by the Industrial Revolution after the 1750’s. • The Industrial Revolution brought huge changes in technology and manufacturing to England that led to large increase in wealth. The result of these changes made access to goods and food much easier to more people, which in turn led to an improvement in personal hygiene and sanitation, all of which decreased death rates.

6. Countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa moved into stage two of the demographic transition after medical advancements in North America and Europe diffused into these regions.

7. 3rd Stage: Moderate Growth • In this stage the crude birth rate of a country begins to rapidly decline, but because it is still higher than the CDR, the population continues to grow. • Essentially, in this stage, the RNI begins to decrease as the difference in CDR and CBR narrow. • North America and Europe moved into stage 3 during the beginning of the 1900’s, while countries in Asia and Latin America have been moving into this stage only recently. Most countries in Africa still remain in stage 2. • Stage 3 is brought on by a change to economic prosperity and a resulting change in social customs. • infant mortality having been lowered in stage 2  less chance of their children dying before adulthood = people have less children • As society becomes more urbanized, children are not economic assets to their children, like they are to farmers, and there is much less space to house a large family, making it much more expensive to raise children.

8. Stage 4: Low Growth • At this stage, CBR lowers to the point where it equals CDR, resulting in zero population growth (ZPG). ZPG = 2.1 TFR • Most of Europe and the U.S. are currently in stage four. • Reasons for a move into stage four result from things we have already discussed in class: • Women moving from homemakers to working outside the home = nobody to watch the children • Expensive to raise children in urban environment • Social instability = people uncertain about the future, have less children • More family planning = lower birth rate

9. There are two important underlying principles of the Demographic Transition Model • In stage one, CDR and CBR are very high, - around 35 – 40 per 1,000. • Total population in stage 4 is much higher than in stage 1.