U.S. - Canada Bilateral

1. U.S. - Canada Bilateral Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Weather Service November 6-7, 2008 North American Ensemble Forecast System

2. Outline • History of NAEFS • Current Status • How NAEFS is Used • Medium Range • Severe Weather • Winter Weather • Ongoing development • Possible FNMOC participation • Ongoing Discussion • Possible expansion to day 35 • Increased resolution • Issue • Data Flow

3. History of NAEFS • Feb 2003 - NOAA / MSC high level agreement • May 2003 – 1st NAEFS Workshop • Sept 2004 - Initial Operational Capability implemented at MSC & NWS • Nov 2004 - Inauguration ceremony & 2nd NAEFS Workshop (Canada, Mexico, U.S.) • May-Sept 2006 – Operational implementation: bias correction, climate anomalies, (Canada, U.S.) • Dec 2007 – downscaling (U.S.) • 2008 – Ongoing implementations and improvements (4th Workshop with Canada, Mexico, U.S, Oct 6-8) • 2007-08 – NAEFS Training developed for international regions (South America, Central America, Caribbean, Africa

4. North American Ensemble Forecast System Canada contributes 42 runs/day to 16 days at 1 deg resolution US contributes 84/day to 16 days at ~90 km (T126) resolution • NAEFS basic product list • Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc. • 76 variables (by Dec’08) • U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc. • 7 domains (produced for GEFS, for NAEFS during FY09) • Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa • Over 600 products requested by users • Graphics • NAWIPS (NAEFS, GEFS, CMC) • NCEP Model Web Page – operational Sept 07 (GEFS only, NAEFS coming) • EMC web page - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/NAEFS/NAEFS-prods.html (NAEFS, GEFS, CMC) CONUS • Canada Web site: http://www.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/index_naefs_e.html • Grids (NAEFS, GEFS, CMC) • NAWIPS • ftp site (GRIB2) (external access) ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/naefs.YYYYMMDD/cc • NDGD (2m temps, 10m wind, sfcp on 5x5km grid (based on RTMA)) - available on above ftp site as well • NOMADS – NAEFS to become part of NOMADS by December 2008

5. How NAEFS is Used • Medium Range – Day 1-7 (CONUS, AK) • Assess Uncertainty • Depict alternate scenarios • Ensemble mean often better than individual runs and is increasingly used in forecasts • Experimental PQPF product • Day 8 -14 temp forecast • Severe Weather – out to Day 8 • Winter Weather • Probabilistic snowfall amounts in medium range North American Ensemble Forecast System 8 to 14 Day Temperature Guidance 00z forecast [EXPERIMENTAL] Valid: November 08 to 14, 2008, Issued: Oct 31, 2008

6. NCEP/GEFS raw forecast 8+ days gain NAEFS final products From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC

7. Possible FNMOC Participation(Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) • FNMOC provides 16 members once per day out to day 10 • Operational Data exchange between NCEP FNMOC started Aug 2008 • Testing /evaluation until Aug 2009 (unless extra funding, in which case this and next item can be accelerated) • Operational implementation (pending positive results) Aug 2010 • Evaluation metrics are being designed; verification work started; • Canada will also be evaluating data; data transfer to Canada still being resolved

8. Ongoing DiscussionsBetween U.S. and Canada • Consider extending NAEFS integration to 30-35 days (2009-10) • Address Intra-Seasonal Forecasting • Weeks 3-4 temperature/precipitation • MJO

9. Issues – Data Flow • Today the NWS sends ~6.5 GB of data, four times per day to EC. EC sends ~ 7.5 GB of data twice per day (soon to be four times per day). • Accomplished via internet • Growing data exchange will require operational data circuits • Neither NWS or EC have been able to fund these circuits • EC proposes to consolidate all of their telecommunication exchange requirements to the NWS and NOAA • Recommendation: NCEP and EC proposes formal study of this approach; provide pros, cons and final recommendation