Lawrence Stringer, East Sussex County Council TRICS Pass-by & Diverted Trips Research
Why did we start this research? • Existing research data • The TRICS Research Report 95/2 “Pass-By and Diverted Trips: A Resume” • Good research but 1995 • Often used, sometimes rejected • Things have changed • Investigate the impact and assessment methodology for pass-by and diverted trips
Methodology • Stage 1 - Information Analysis • Literature Review • UK National Policy • Travel Behaviour & Trends • Commercial Research • Academic Research • International Research • Analysis of TRICS data • Stage 2 - Individual Surveys • Peer Review
Policy Guidance • Department for Transport: Guidance on Transport Assessment (2007) • TfL: Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance Document (2010) • Auckland Regional Transport Authority: Integrated Transport Assessment Guidelines & Supplementary Documents (2007) • National Planning Policy Framework (2012) • ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition (2012)
Travel Trends & Behaviours • National Travel Survey • Distance travelled by car decreasing • Shopping trips account for one fifth of all trips • Number of shopping trips per person per year has decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012 • London Travel Demand Survey • Online Shopping Trends
Travel Trends & Behaviours • Online Shopping • UK online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the total grocery market. Kantar Media, 2012
Travel Trends & Behaviours • Online Shopping • Online grocery shopping increasing by 18.7% over the past 12 months • 22% of households shopped online for groceries over the past 12 months • Click and Collect Tesco & Asda Chronodrive Rapidly growing market
Commercial Research • Somerfield: Shopping Trip Survey (1996) Somerfield, 1996
Commercial Research • Tesco Survey: Shopping Centres Research – Linked Trips Information, 2001 • Table 4.1 Linked Trips • Tesco Stores Ltd, 2001
Academic Research Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation Characteristics of Large-Format Retail Development Sites in Auckland • High proportion of secondary (pass-by and diverted) trips exist, being in the range of 57-67%. Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generation • average percentage of pass-by trips recorded was 72%, • relationship between pass-by trip percentage and adjacent street volumes Mouchel (2009) Proposed Tesco Store & Shopping Centre, West Bromwich: Working Paper 3 – Linked Trips • pass-by level 40% considered robust estimate during weekday PM peak
Academic Research • MacIver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact Assessment: Forecasting Travel Demand General rules for the proportions of pass-by trips at superstore developments in the UK: • Superstores on major commuting routes in larger urban areas - 25-35%; • Less commuting routes, in out-of-town locations and in urban areas with smaller populations - 15 to 25%; • In town centres and on non-primary routes the proportion - 10%; and • In locations with little propensity to generate pass-by trips the proportion can be as low as 5%.
Analysis of TRICS data • 88 sites from TRICS Database • 5 Location Types: • Town Centre • Edge of Town Centre • Suburban (A) • Suburban (B) • Edge of Town • Surveys from 2000 onwards only • Mixture of Friday and Saturday surveys
Analysis of TRICS data • GFA & Location Type • No correlation Figure 7.1 GFA by Location
Analysis of TRICS Data • Proximity to major shopping types • A correlation exists to nearest commercial area
Analysis of TRICS Data • Trip rates • Weekday and weekend daily period (07:00-19:00) trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases • Peak hour spreading 1600 – 1900
Analysis of TRICS Data • Weekday daily period trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases
Analysis of TRICS data • Facilities • 12 types of facilities considered. As GFA increases, the facilities provided within the store expands.
Analysis of TRICS data • Facilities against Location Type • Range of facilities on offer increases as distance from the town centre increases
Analysis of TRICS data • GFA & Population • 4+ facilities = comparison stores, less than 4 facilities = convenience stores. • No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to major area types or type of facilities provided. • As GFA drops below 3,000m2, population per 1,000m2 GFA also decreases
Key conclusions from Stage 1 Literature Review • Lack of direction on how prevalence of pass-by and diverted trips should be addressed. • Methodologies to assess these trips not provided in many policy guidelines. • Commercial research has brought contradictory results • Propensity for store customers to visit other shops within a town centre. • Shopping habits are changing rapidly, especially online retail shopping and click and collect services. • UK online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the total grocery market; increasing annually. • Online shopping trends and click and collect services to be considered in determining trip rates and trip type proportions.
Key conclusions from Stage 1 TRICS Data Review • 88 sites • Correlation between location type and proximity to the nearest commercial area • Friday peak period for store activity 1600 to 1900 • Saturday peak period 100 to 1200 • Trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases • No correlation between GFA and daily trip rate. • No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to nearest competition, proximity to nearest residential area or commercial area of type of facilities provided.
Key points for Stage 2 • Store location type is most important factor for consideration. • TRICS data review shows population and GFA to be less important factors. • Surveys to focus on the two ends of the scale – town centre and edge of town sites. Six surveys at each location type. • Surveys to investigate the facilities on offer in each store and whether these are a point of influence in trip choice. • Surveys at click and collect locations to be undertaken.
Peer Review Group • Graham Scholefield, University of Salford • Martin Rogers, Dublin Institute of Technology • Andrew MacIver, Napier University Edinburgh • Dilum Dissanayake, University of Newcastle • Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster • Gordon Stokes, University of Oxford • Andrew Murdoch, TPP Consulting • Richard Sweet, PB Consultants • Melvyn Dresner, Transport for London • Stuart Wilson, Transport Scotland
Points for Discussion • Survey Categories • Town Centre • Edge of Town • Number of Surveys • Questions for inclusion in survey interviews • Online shopping trends influencing overall store trip rates