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Space Weather: its effects and predictability

Space Weather: its effects and predictability. David Cole, IPS Radio & Space Services. World Space Environment Forum Adelaide July 2002. Space Weather. Comprehensive NSF definition.

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Space Weather: its effects and predictability

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  1. Space Weather: its effects and predictability David Cole, IPS Radio & Space Services World Space Environment Forum Adelaide July 2002

  2. Space Weather

  3. Comprehensive NSF definition • conditions on the sun and in thesolar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life and health. • Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power grids, leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses

  4. SOHO: New Views of the Sun

  5. SOLAR FLARE DEC 2000

  6. SOHO: New Views of the Sun

  7. Erupting solar filament

  8. View of CME from TRACE

  9. Solar wind-magnetosphere

  10. Space Weather Effects

  11. Space Environment Hazards

  12. Satellite Environment

  13. Operational Impacts Radiation Effects on Spacecraft • DEEP AND SURFACE CHARGING • Caused by Low & High Energy Particles • Discharges cause Upset/Burnout Solar Activity • SURFACE DAMAGE • Caused by Low Energy Particles, UV & X-Rays • Degradation of Thermal Control Material • Damage to Solar Cells Cosmic Radiation • SINGLE EVENT EFFECTS (SEE) • Caused by High Energy Particles • Memory Changes • False Sensor Readings • Processor Latch-up • Burnout

  14. Internal Charging

  15. OPERATIONAL IMPACTS IONOSPHERIC EFFECTS Ionospheric Turbulence Scintillation Undisturbed Ionosphere Ionosphere • GPS Loss of Lock • SATCOM Outages • Radar Interference Electron Density Bend & Delay X Absorb Apparent Location True Location Ionosphere • Radar Errors • Geolocation Errors • GPS Errors • HF Radio Outages

  16. SOLAR CYCLE (July 2002)

  17. SUNSPOT CYCLES 1750-2000

  18. ISTP Spacecraft

  19. Solar X-Ray Imaging (SXI)

  20. Global Magnetospheric Simulation

  21. Omidi et al., JGR 2002

  22. Dp = 130 c/wp

  23. TIGER Tasmania TIGER New Zealand Geomagnetic Pole Geographic Pole TIGER TIGER (Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar) Concept: 2 radars with intersecting beams. • Advantages: • Lower latitude coverage than other SuperDARN radars • Provides essential longitude coverage for mapping convection in Southern Hemisphere

  24. Australian FEDSAT

  25. ASFC DATA FLOWS & PROCESSES IPSNET CULGOORA LEARMONTH DIAL UP MAG & ION NETWORK ANARE LINK IMAGES SOLAR ARCHIVE (IMAGES) ION ARCHIVE MAG ARCHIVE RIO ARCHIVE CULGOORA LEARMONTH LEASED LINES INDEX GENERATION ASCII TEXT MSGS & DATA AUTO DISPLAY GENERATION PRODUCT DELIVERY. EMAIL, WEB, FAX, POST AUTO ALERT GENERATION INTERNET SEC RWC’s, ISES Special Sites. (LASCO, MTOF RAL, CRL) REPORT & WARNING GENERATION (SEMI-AUTO) DATA EXTRACTION DECODING, REFORMAT ASFC REAL-TIME ARCHIVE (DATA & FORECAST) VERIFICATION EXTERNAL INTERACTIVE DISPLAY FORECASTER AUTOMATIC DIRECT WEB BROWSING VERIFIED

  26. Ionospheric climate Variability Storms, sporadic E Tilts, gradients Auroral, equatorial regions Absorption Flares Geomagnetic field Polarization Fading TIDs, irregularities Atmospheric and galactic noise The Ionospheric/HF Environment

  27. Ionospheric Timescales

  28. www.ips.gov.au

  29. IPS Status Panel

  30. Diagnostic: Townsville Ionogram

  31. Real Time Ionospheric Map

  32. Flares - SWF

  33. HAP Chart and Auroral Oval • Example shows frequencies for contacting Perth. • The NOAA/TIROS auroral data are used to produce this display. • The "bars" at the bottom show the extent, position and intensity of the auroral oval. • The curved line represents aircraft flight path on the great circle between Melbourne and Cape Town.

  34. Summary • Space is hostile environment (predictions) • Monitoring is vital to our technology (models) • Australian space weather research is active (Australian National Plan) • Increased education and public outreach required(World Institute for Space Environment Research)

  35. Australian Space Weather Plan Three pillars to the Plan: • Space weather monitoring • Space weather research priorities • Community outreach

  36. IPS Contact Details +61 2 9213 8000 +61 2 9213 8060 office@ips.gov.au www.ips.gov.au Level 6, North Wing 477 Pitt Street Sydney NSW 2000 P.O. Box 1386 Haymarket NSW 1240 Australia

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