Partisan Change

1. Partisan Change GOVT 311 Lecture 6

2. Types of Surveys • Cross-sectional – conducted on one universe of people at one point in time • Panel – same group of people interviewed over time • Panel attrition: loss of respondents over course of survey

3. Voting Behavior of Partisans • “Strong” Partisans are more loyal than “weak” partisans (F & Z p.90) • Overall defection rates of strong and weak partisans for presidential elections has remained constant with a small decrease in the 1990s. Partisans of both types have become more loyal. • More partisans tend to defect towards the winning candidate, especially when there is an incumbent running in the election.

4. Partisan Voting • In Congress, Democrats held an edge in defections, with more Republicans defecting to Democratic candidates, until the election of 1994. (Flanigan and Zingale p.92) • Why?

5. Are Independents “Independent”? • Independents are more likely to vote in the direction of the winning presidential candidate (F & Z p.96) • Independents show more support for third party candidates • A majority of Independents vote for partisan candidates, even when third party candidates are present in the election.

6. Partisan Turnout • Strong Partisans are more likely to vote than weak partisans. Independents are the least likely to vote (F & Z p.94) • Strong Partisans have more interest in politics.

7. Partisan Change • Period effects • Generation effects • Life-cycle effects • (F & Z p. 93)

8. Forecasting a Realigning Election • Does an increase of independents among young voters presage a realigning election?

9. Partisan Change • Partisanship is something learned as a consequence of “great events” that move everyone (period effect) • Baseline Partisanship is learned when one becomes voting age (generation effect, E & T p.152) • Roaring 20’s – Republican • Depression – Democrats • Sixties • Protesters – Democrats • Non-Protestors – Republicans • Eighties – Republican • Nineties – Democrats • As one ages, partisanship changes (life-cycle effect)

10. Life-Cycle of Partisanship • As people age, they become more Republican because of the “air of respectability, conservatism, and social status” (American Voter authors) • Is this true?

11. Percent Self-Identified Republicans (Source: ANES)

12. Percent Self-Identified Democrats (Source: ANES)

13. What do children learn? • Pre-school: 75% of children able to answer what the policeman does. 10% could recognize the president. 60% recognize the U.S. flag. • Early Childhood: Children begin to become aware of government. Generally view it in a favorable and trusting light. • Late Childhood: Still very trusting of government, but some notion of what democracy is begins to emerge. Children begin to separate the people from the institutions, and begin to think in partisan terms.

14. What do children learn? • Adolescence: Junior high students begin to think like adults. Children develop ideology, and notions of political efficacy. They remain positive about the symbols and ideals of democracy, but are cynical to the people. In fact, during Clinton’s impeachment, youths age 11-18 were more in favor of impeachment than adults.

15. Do Children learn from their Parents? • Yes. Erikson and Tendin p.131. • Also agree on policy issues (Erikson and Tedin p. 121). • Partisanship is transmitted from parents to children (Flanigan and Zingale p.105, 106). • (Note: there isn’t a lot of current research in this area)

16. Do students learn politics in school? • Yes. Without a doubt schools have been used time and again to politically socialize students, and to teach loyalty and obedience to the existing government order. • Is this a good thing?

17. The College Experience • College students tend to self-identify more liberal over time (E & T p.145, 148). • Are more liberal on issues (E & T p.149). • Professors are more liberal than students (E & T p.147).

18. Social Network Theory • The character of the contact is important. It must include a political message to affect political behavior.