Ocean Measurements from Space: Past, Present, and Future

1. Ocean Measurements from Space:Past, Present, and Future Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University 7 November 2007

2. Overview • A few examples of ocean research • A mix of agencies and missions • The NRC Decadal Survey • NPOESS and the Meltdown • New opportunities • Lost in the shuffle?

3. GCOS List of Essential Ocean Variables • Surface:Sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction, sea surface salinity, sea level, sea state, sea ice, currents, ocean color, CO2 partial pressure • Can be divided into requirements for short-term (“forecasting”) and long-term (“projections”) applications • Although the names remain the same, requirements change significantly

4. A few examples of satellite-based research • Eddies and ocean color • Coupling between persistent fronts and wind stress • Ocean color and photosynthetic potential

5. 1 0 wind stress minimum Chlorophyll concentration, eddy kinetic energy and alongshore wind stress off Peru and Chile [Pa x 10] Kinetic energy [cm -2 m-2] [mg m-3] Why do eddies emanate from the low-energy region off N. Chile?

7. A similar picture is found off the western U.S. coast. Chelton et al.

8. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – January 1998. A sequence show high Chl carried offshore for 6 months.

9. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – February 1998

10. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – March 1998

11. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – April 1998

12. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – June 1998

13. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – July1998

14. This air-sea interaction changes the curl and divergence of the wind stress: the curl of the wind stress creates vertical motions in the ocean (changing nutrients and biology); the divergence creates vertical motions in the atmosphere (changing clouds).

15. The predicted patterns relating the wind stress curl and divergence to the SST gradients (crosswind and downwind) are found over the Tropical Instability Waves, the Gulf Stream (and other WBCs) and the California Current (and other EBCs). The full effects of this coupling in both ocean and atmosphere have yet to be explored.

16. Global & Seasonal Distribution of Fluorescence/[chl a]

17. 1.00 50N 40N 0.09 20N Equ 0.08 20S 40S 0.07 50S 0.06 Fluorescence quantum yield 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Irradiance, μmol quanta m-2 s-1 f derived using Huot et al. 2005 Deriving Fluorescence quantum yield as a function of seasonal solar irradiance

18. Irradiance, μmol m-2 s-1 Morrison, 2003 Schallenberg et al., submitted How do the MODIS derived seasonal trends in sun-induced chl fluorescence compare with our present models? Stressed Fluorescence quantum yield Non-stressed Asymmetry between Northern and Southern Hemisphere

19. A Potpourri of Missions and Agencies • Mission types • Single flight research missions • Multiple flight, improving capability research missions • Block series operational missions • Agencies • Research agencies (NASA) • Operational agencies (DoD, NOAA) • International partners

20. NRC proposes a “Decadal Survey” to develop a coordinated, multi-agency strategy for Earth observations • Proven, respected strategy • Astronomy, astrophysics • Community-based • Focused on identifying key science issues • Sets context for relationships between initiatives, phasing, international partnerships • New for Earth science • Multiple agencies, multiple objectives

21. Decadal Survey Approach • Identify consensus science questions for 2005-2015 • Make connections between applications and candidate observing systems • Recommend prioritized capabilities for NASA and NOAA • Identify directions for future planning beyond 2015

22. Interim Report in April 2005 • “Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse” "In the short period since the InterimReport, budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern.  At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the envy of the world, are in disarray.“ January 2007 Final Report

23. Decadal Survey Final Report • Overarching recommendation is to renew investment in Earth observing systems and restore US leadership • Developed Top 10 science questions, integrated with societal needs • Identified missions for both NOAA and NASA in the near-term • Identified missions for NOAA and NASA for the next decade (2010-2020)

24. Near-Term Recommendations • NOAA • Restore total solar irradiation and Earth radiation budget sensors to NPOESS • Restore next-generation sounding capabilities to GOES-R • NASA • Launch Global Precipitation Mission by 2012 • Replace Landsat-7 before 2012

25. New Missions • 17 NASA and NOAA missions between 2010 and 2020 • Seven small missions between $65M - $300M • Eight medium missions between $350M - $600M • Two large missions between $700M - $800M • Transition 3 research capabilities to operations • Ocean vector winds • GPS occultation • Total solar irradiance • NASA provides absolute, spectrally-resolved solar interferometer

26. New Missions (cont’d) • Two geostationary and 13 polar-orbiting missions • Four between 2010 and 2013 • Five between 2013 and 2016 • Six between 2016 and 2020 • Of particular interest to ocean research • IceSat-II • Hyperspectral sensor in geostationary orbit • Advanced ocean altimeter • Multi-band spectroradiometer for advanced measurements of ocean color

27. Recommended Missions

28. Recommended NASA Budget

29. Recommended NOAA Budget

30. Since the Decadal Survey • Nunn-McCurdy Certification of NPOESS • From 6 to 4 spacecraft • First spacecraft delayed to 2013 • Several sensors dropped or de-scoped • GOES-R caught in the crossfire and several capabilities were dropped • Concerns raised about continuity and climate sensors • Gaps are now inevitable

31. Lost in the Shuffle? • VIIRS will fly on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) in 2009 • Will fly “as is” • Unlikely to meet basic requirements for science-quality ocean color • Vector winds • QuikSCAT will likely cease operations before new mission can launch • Ocean topography • Ocean surface topography mission will require NOAA participation as well as NASA • All-weather SST • Passive microwave radiometer on NPOESS (CMIS) • Coastal Waters Imager • Hyperspectral imager initially planned for GOES-R • Dropped because of cost concerns

32. Outlook • NASA and NOAA • Better pathway from research to operations • Continuing need for research and technology development • Gaps will occur • Climate observations • Recognition of importance of satellite data • But still issues of balance between short-term and long-term • Climate data records are a perennial issue • Reprocessing, calibration/validation • Still focusing on physical climate measurements • Budgets • NASA still balancing space and Earth science • Pressures from manned missions • NOAA trying to manage long-term operations costs