Global WarmingEnergy Challenges CMAQ Presentation January 9, 2006
Overview • Greenhouse effect • Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise • Forcing models / temperature predictions • Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F) • Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak • Future and current energy challenges • Energy equity – the road ahead
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillionin less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
Carbon Emissions and CO2 • Carbon burned => CO2 • Linear from 1850 to 2000 - ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4*M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%) • ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2 • 33% into the oceans • Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years? A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Global Warming - the 20th Century http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and ClimateLag, 2000 - 2100 0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
Consequences of Warming • Thinning of polar ice caps • Thawing permafrost / release of methane • Slowing of the thermohaline cycle • Rising sea level, perhaps quickly • Extreme weather events • Extended regions of drought • Extremes of temperature / duration • Extremes of storms and hurricanes All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade, and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
Storms on the Move Katrina moving across Florida in late August 2005 finds warm water in the Gulf of Mexico And grows from a category 1 to a category 5 hurricane in less than 2 days!
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Oil Production – Reserves Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
Energy Equity • Burning oil is burning money! • Build an energy infrastructure with equity • Solar energy is primary, not alternative! • $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’ • Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 forlocal installers • Built in America, by Americans, for America, what could be moreeconomic? http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
Summary • Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle • Forcing models – temperature lag • Effect of warming just one degree • Peak oil – declining energy production • Energy Equity – and the road ahead • Our single biggest challenge • Our single biggest opportunity
References • http://www.realclimate.org/ • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ • http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html • http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/ • http://www.solarelectricpower.org/ • http://www.nrel.gov/ • http://www.eia.doe.gov/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil