Global WarmingEnergy Challenges RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series County of San Mateo January 31, 2006
Overview • Greenhouse effect • Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise • Forcing models / temperature predictions • Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F) • Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak • Future and current energy challenges • Energy equity – and the road ahead
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
Global Warming - the 20th Century http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillionin less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
Carbon Emissions and CO2 • Carbon burned => CO2 • Linear from 1850 to 2000 - ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4*M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%) • ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2 • 33% into the oceans • Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years? A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs Based on 2% annual growth in carbon emissions 2000 - 2030
Global Climate Models (GCM) • Ab Initio modeling • From first principles • Modeling land and sea temps from 1900 - 2000 • Complexity and data • Climate is a dynamic system – ‘complex’ math • GISS study • 10 year study over oceans • Sea temps ~7,500 ft depth • Satellite data for forcing
Forcing Calculations Some math is required…. • Forcing (Watts) = atmospheric forcing factor multiplied by: • ln (ppm gas conc. current / ppm gas conc. historic) • 2) ATM forcing factor for CO2calculated (est.) to be 5.85 watts • 3) For 2005, calculation = 5.85 W * ln (380 ppm / 280 ppm) = ~1.8W • 4) For CO2, climate sensitivity = 2/3 degree C per 1 watt of forcing • 5) 25 to 50 years for the climate to respond to 60% of this forcing You can model this in Excel and predict temperatures from ppm [CO2]
Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and ClimateLag, 2000 - 2100 0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
The Carbon Cycle • Why atmospheric CO2 is the last thingon earth humans should have interfered with! • We are releasing CO2 at one million times the rate that earthinitially sequestered it at • We inserted ourselves in the carbon cycle • And are affecting the ‘thermostat of life’ • Earth uses CO2 to help maintain an optimum temperature for the biosphere, for > 650K years
The Thermostat of Life • Vostok ice core data show regular and repeating cycles of temps and CO2 over last ~500,000 years • Oscillate between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 and 100 C • Hypothesis that earth regulates the temperature of the planet through CO2 / greenhouse effect • Biosphere maintains a precise level of CO2 for life • But the biosphere isn’t really absorbing our CO2 • Y intercept of cum. carbon burn / CO2 is 297 ppm • http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackleton2000.pdf
Vostok CO2 and Temperature • The relationship between CO2 and temperature is nearly perfect (r2*100 = 99) • However, the casual relationship is the basis for significant (expert) controversy • Why does this occur?
The Vostok Equilibrium • Vostok ‘equilibrium’ • 100K year cycles • earth’s orbital eccentricity • Sun heats up the planet • Biosphere expands • CO2 maintains temp • Otherwise earth would be very cold ~ 0 degrees F • CO2has not exceeded 280 ppm in the last 500K years and 4 major cycles
Crux of the Vostok Data Temperature leads biomass CO2, then CO2 maintains temperature
Just One Degree F • These examples will show the affect of warming the earth at just one degree F • And for less than 50 years! • Warming has accelerated in last ~20 years • The affect of temperature is cumulative • Earth takes decades to centuries to react • And we still owe an additional degree F!
Long Term Warming Effects Not just increased temperature, but added heat, for a long, long, time!
Consequences of Warming • Thinning of polar ice caps • Thawing permafrost / release of methane • Slowing of the thermohaline cycle • Rising sea level, perhaps quickly • Extreme weather events • Extended regions of drought • Extremes of temperature / duration • Extremes of storms and hurricanes All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
Storms on the Move Katrina moving across Florida in late August 2005 finds warm water in the Gulf of Mexico And grows from a category 1 to a category 5 hurricane in less than 2 days!
The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade, and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html
Thermohaline Cycle http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html NASA schematic view of ocean circulation. The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of: 1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which results from strong cooling. 3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.
Calving Ice Shelf Process Antarctic holds >80% of earth’s fresh water Like the Arctic, it moderates the climate • Calving at the edge of the ice shelf • Shelves hold the main ice flows back • As they break, ice flows into the sea • Melt water fills the ice crevice • Water sinks, crevices expand - • Fissuring the shelf into pieces
Greenland Melting http://www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.html
Retreating Glaciers http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
Sea Level Expansion • Sea expands from water molecule changing 0.0002 in volume for each 0C • Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it adds up • Thermal expansion is 1 – 2 cm / 10 yrs. • But is accelerating to 2.5 cm / decade • For every 1 0C, sea expands ~1 meter in height - sea cannot expand ‘down or out’ http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.html
Sea Level Rise http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr30mla/viewer.htm
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
World Oil Production History http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil
Oil Discovery (3 year average - past and projected) 1930-2050 http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm
Oil Production – Reserves Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Energy Equity • Burning oil is burning money! • Build an energy infrastructure with equity • Solar energy is primary, not alternative! • $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’ • Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 forlocal installers • Built in America, by Americans, forAmerica, what could be moreeconomic? http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
Fuel cells Hydrogen Solar energy Batteries Motors New power grid Low power lighting Insulation materials Safer nuclear power CO2 sequestration 10 Key Energy Challenges Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project Timeline
Building a Solar Economy • Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy • 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025 • Solar brings true energy independence from carbon • It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s • Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005 One Million Solar Roofs – ‘California, the Solar State’
A New Auto Economy? • New types of cars • Electric cars • Hydrogen cars • Hydrogen hybrids • Transportation is a key area of growing CO2 • And one area where we can individually make key changes in the CO2 that we each produce
A RealHybrid Vehicle Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon
Flexible Fuel ElectricPlug-in Hybrids • 1 KWhr will power this ‘hybrid’ car about 4 miles • Burning natural gas for electricity, will generate about 1 lb. of CO2 • Compare to 2 pounds of CO2 at 40 mpg (petrol) • Recharge car at night, when power rates are low. • Put ‘power on the grid’ during the day with solar. http://www.evworld.com/electrichybrid.cfm
A New Electron Economy • $1 - 2 trillion for solar energy • $1 trillion in a new power grid • $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars • $1 trillion in new electric motor and batterytechnology for cars and other appliances • Energy needs to join the digital age • Networked and distributed power sources Solar power is an ‘edge of network’ asset in a distributed power system
SolarSegway™ Range ~8 - 12 miles Battery packs can be charged locally (~5 hrs) Emission free vehicle Solar panels ‘extra’ Projected cost of $2,500 in quantity Move Differently
Zero Emission Economy • Global population pressure creates a big problem in controlling carbon emissions • 8 billion people * 1.25 tons carbon / person • 10 G tons of carbon burned per year • 50% more than the 6.6 G tons of carbon today • The only solution is zero-emission power • Nuclear and solar are the long-term options, and significant growth in wind generated power