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Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia. Climate Change Impacts in Colombia. What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found: Retreat of glaciers are affecting already compromised water availability for consumption or hydropower generation [TS4.2 & 13.2.4].

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Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

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  1. Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

  2. Climate Change Impacts in Colombia What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found: • Retreat of glaciers are affecting already compromised water availability for consumption or hydropower generation [TS4.2 & 13.2.4]. • Between 1990-2000 a 82% reduction in glaciers, showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of 10-15 m yearly. Under the current climate trends, glaciers of the country will disappear completely within the next 100 years [Table 13.3] • In the future, sea level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes modified by global warming are very likely to have impacts on mangroves [13.4.4]. • SLR of 1.0 m would permanent flood 4,900 km2 of low lying coast. About 1.4 million people would be affected, 7,208,299 ha of crops and pasture will be lost [Table 13.7].

  3. Predictability of weather and climate Trenberth

  4. Climate Models as a tool for future projections CAM T341- Jim Hack

  5. What is behind a climate model • 3-dimension mathematical Grid • Based on physical laws • Represented by equations • Horizontal Resolution: 150-500 km www.bom.gov.au

  6. Future of GCM – Earth System Models Ice Sheet IPCC, 2001

  7. Auflösung GCM – Earth System Model GlobalGeneral Circulation IPCC AR3 1998 Continentallarge-scaleflow IPCC AR4 2004 4TF Regional local IPCC AR5 2010 500TF L. Buja, NCAR, 2007

  8. GCMs for impact assessments

  9. Dynamical Downscaling - RCM Emissionsszenario GCM Re-Analysis (z.B. ERA40) • 200-500 km horizontal resolution • GCM: Scenarios possible • Re-Analysis: ‘perfect boundary conditions‘ www.climateprediction.net Regional Climate Model • 10-50 km horizontal resolution • `time-slice‘ experiments • CTRL (e.g. 1961-1990) • SCEN (e.g. 2071-2100) • Initial and lateral conditions provided by GCM (scenario) or Reanalyses (current climate)

  10. Statistical Downscaling UC, Santander, Spain

  11. IPCC GCM results

  12. IPCC GCM results Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes

  13. IPCC GCM results Precipitation 2030 Averages and Extremes

  14. IPCC GCM web tool

  15. Group 6: CC and Climate Models in Colombia • Which large scale atmospheric circulation pattern influence Colombia’s climate, and how? • IPCC GCM analysis (web tool): What past climate trends and future projections for Colombia can be detected? • Based on the IPCC GCM analysis: How relate your findings to the impacts found by IPCC for Colombia (first slide)?

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