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Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)

Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis).

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Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)

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  1. Long Term World Oil Supply(A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)

  2. Executive Summary- These pages summarize a recent EIA presentation on when world conventional oil production will peak and the effect of different estimates of the world conventional oil resource base. - A larger resource base generally leads to a later production peak. World oil resource base estimates have trended upward over the years, from 600 billion barrels estimated in the early 1940’s to as high as 3,900 billion barrels estimated this year by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).- To illustrate the important factors affecting estimates of the peak production year, EIA postulated 12 scenarios based on three current USGS world conventional oil resource base estimates (2,248, 3,003 and 3,896 billion barrels - corresponding to high, mean and low probabilities of occurrence) and four world oil production annual growth rates (0, 1, 2 and 3 percent.)

  3. Executive Summary (Continued) - Using a relatively simple algorithm, peak production years were estimated. The peak production year estimates ranged from 2021 to 2112 across the 12 scenarios. For example, using the USGS mean (expected) resource base estimate (3,003 billion barrels) and an annual production growth rate of 2 percent (similar to the current rate), the estimated peak production year is 2037. - EIA’s estimates for production peaks occur later than those generated by other analysts, some of whom predicted the production peak will occur as early as 2004. EIA’s analysis indicates instead that world conventional oil production may increase two decades or more before it begins to decline.

  4. Executive Summary (Continued) - EIA’s relative optimism is based on: (1) use of the current USGS world conventional oil resource estimates, which are both larger and more technically sound than past resource estimates used by others, and (2) use of a methodology for estimating the post-peak production path that is based on the reserve to production (R/P) ratio observed in the United States since oil production peaked in 1970. - Other factors, e.g., choice of different production curve hypotheses, market dynamics, technological advances, and economic policies, could change the results, perhaps substantially.

  5. Overview • Oil Resources (Estimates) • Year of Peak Oil Production (Scenarios) • U.S. • World • What Might Change the Estimated Time of Peak Production? • Conclusions

  6. The Year of Peak ProductionWhen will worldwide conventional oil production peak?

  7. Texas Oil and Condensate Production, and Texas First Purchase Price (FPP), 1980-1999 3,000 100 Average old well declines 1986 Production 90 15% each year. Decline 13% 2,500 80 1998 70 1997 Production 2,000 Production Decline Thousand Barrels Per Day Increase 60 14% 1% 1986 TX First Purchase Oil Price, 1999$ Price 50 1,500 Decline 1998 51% 40 Price 1,000 Decline 30 44% 20 500 Production 10 TX FPP 1999$ 0 0 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98

  8. Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Trillions of Barrels Source: USGS and Colin Campbell

  9. Different Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base 6,000 4,200 3,000 Unrecoverable Billion Billion 5,000 Unrecovered Reserves Unrecovered Billion Barrels Growth Undiscovered 4,000 Proved Reserves 50% 3,000 Recovery Reserves Growth Cumulative Factor with Adds 10% Production Reserves Growth 2,000 40% Recovery Factor 30% 1,000 Without Recovery Reserves Factor Growth 0 USGS Approach 1995 Campbell/Laherrere Approach

  10. Campbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050 Production Peak 2004 Campbell

  11. Laherrere’s Oil Production Forecast, 1930-2150 Production Peak 2010 Laherrere

  12. WORLD OIL PRODUCTION SCENARIOS Estimated Peak Production Rate Ultimate Annual Probability of Ultimate Re- covery Recovery Production Growth Rate (Million barrels per year) (Million barrels per day) Estimated Peak Year (Billion barrels) (Percent) 95 Percent 2,248 0.0 2045 24,580 67 2,248 1.0 2033 34,820 95 2,248 2.0 2026 42,794 117 2,248 3.0 2021 48,511 133 Mean 3,003 0.0 2075 24,580 67 (expected 3,003 1.0 2050 41,238 113 value) 3,003 2.0 2037 53,209 146 3,003 3.0 2030 63,296 173 5 Percent 3,896 0.0 2112 24,580 67 3,896 1.0 2067 48,838 134 3,896 2.0 2047 64,862 178 3,896 3.0 2037 77,846 213

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